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2-0; +4.00pts (system plays: 6-7-3) Round 1 play (2pts): Charles Howell to beat Stephen Ames +138 @ Paddy Power TIED
Surprised to see Howell as the underdog in this matchup. He is coming off a top-10 finish (and a closing 62) in the McGladrey Classic two weeks ago and has missed just one cut since the start of July; by contrast, Ames is coming off a missed cut last week and his last top-10 finish was back in March. In terms of suitability to this week's venue, Howell has said previously that he always looks forward to this Vegas event and he hasn't missed a single year since his debut in 2000. He missed the cut that year, but over the next nine years, he has amassed five top-20 finishes at Summerlin. Ames has missed the cut in each of the last two years here and the only time that he has finished inside the top-40 was back in 1999. [unofficial rd1 system plays: Perez tb Palmer +100 (L); Perez tb Atwal +100 (W)] Round 2 play (2pts): Nick Watney to beat Ryan Palmer -150 @ Paddy Power WON by 2
Palmer's 65 yesterday was rather unexpected - he had missed his last three cuts at Summerling and given that he averaged over 40 feet away from the pin with his approach shots, it is surprising that he managed six birdies. I can't see him shooting another low score if he remains as wayward (principally off the tee) and so Watney should resume his dominance of this matchup: in their 14 common events this year, Watney holds a 10-4 h2h lead over 72 holes and a 8-3-3 h2h lead in 2nd round scores. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Taylor tb Duval -115 (L); Byrd tb McNeill -110 (W); Howell tb Byrd -125 (L); Taylor tb Goggin -115 (W); Blanks tb Daly -125 (T); McLardy tb Wilson C -135 (L); Senden tb Laird +105 (L)] Round 3 play (2pts): Pat Perez to beat Andres Romero -105 @ 5Dimes WON by 1
Opposing Romero who ranks 180th (of 191) in 3rd round scoring average. Apart from that general tendency to play poorly on 'moving day', he tends not to play well when out of contention: he has started the 3rd round outside the top-25 on eight occasions and has averaged 73.25 in the 3rd round and failed to score in the 60s from this position all year. [unofficial rd3 system plays: Delaet tb McNeill -105 (T); Sutherland tb Barnes +100 (W); MacKenzie tb Simpson -105 (L); DeLaet tb Campbell +130 (W)] Round 4 play (4pts): Ryan Palmer to beat Kevin Sutherland -115 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] TIED
Palmer is a very good Sunday player - he ranks 3rd in Final Round Scoring Average and 2.13 shot per round better than Sutherland - and he is also a very good player when in contention: he has started the final round in the top-10 on six occasions and finished in the top-5 every time; overall from 23 times in his career that he started Sunday in the top-10, he has finished in the top-5 in 65.2% of those occasions. [unofficial rd4 system plays: Watney tb Fowler -105 (W); Simpson tb Levin -126 (L); Beckman tb Percy -118 (T)] |
