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3-1; +4.50pts (system plays: 12-6-0) Round 1 play (4pts): Jim Furyk tb Retief Goosen -120 @ Five Dimes LOST by 6
Both players in improved form this season and with good records in this event, but Furyk still dominates the h2h stats: in their last nine common events, Goosen has finished ahead of Furyk only once and shot the lower 1st round score only once. Even in this event, Furyk has started better than Goosen in each of the last three years, so I'd expect him to the more likely of these two to be in contention after tomorrow's round. [unofficial rd1 system plays: Furyk tb Stricker -120 (L); Singh tb O'Hair +114 (L); Mickelson tb Els -110 (W); Westwood tb Els -110 (W)] Round 2 play (4pts): Sergio Garcia to beat Fred Couples +123 @ Pinnacle [available widely] WON by 5
Couples has led The Masters after the 1st round previously and went to stay leader for three rounds before finishing 2nd, but that was back in 1998. The last time that he led a PGA Tour event after the 1st round was at the 2008 Arnold Palmer Invitational and he then shot 73-77 to fall to 20th and then 67th in two days. So, even though he has been great on the Champions Tour and he did make the cut at the Houston Open last week, this is a huge task for him to continue in the same form as yesterday. I've no great confidence in Garcia, but he hasn't become such a poor player over the last couple of years to warrant such odds against a player competing under such pressure and public interest. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Lyle tb Martin -130 (L); Mickelson tb Yang -188 (W); Barnes tb Duval -133 (W); Ikeda tb Manassero -125 (L)] Round 3 play (2pts): Lee Westwood to beat Ian Poulter -109 @ Pinnacle [available widely] WON by 6
Has looked to be the better player from tee-to-green over the first two rounds and although neither player has led a Majors event after any round, Westwood is more experienced at this and particularly in recent years. Since the start of the 2008 season, Poulter has led just one event after 36 holes - the 2009 Singapore Open - and he shot 73 in the 3rd round; on the last two occasions that Westwood has led after 36 holes, he has shot 67 and 66 in the 3rd round and go on to still the lead after 54 and 72 holes. [unofficial rd3 system plays: Kuchar tb Johnson D -110 (W); Watney tb Johnson D +110 (W); Goosen tb Els +114 (L); Kjeldsen tb Barnes -110 (L); Haas tb Kjeldsen +105 (W); Toms tb Moore +122 (W); Choi tb Poulter +119 (W); Scott tb Garcia +100 (W)] Round 4 play (2pts): K.J. Choi to beat Lee Westwood +119 @ Expekt [also available @ Five Dimes, Pinnacle and WSEX] WON by 2
Surprisingly large price to back someone who is in 3rd place and in the group ahead of someone who has never previously led a Major Championship. Westwood responded well to Mickelson's back-to-back eagles yesterday, but it will be a different matter today with Tiger in the group ahead and he is paired with Mickelson rather than Poulter. His previous history suggests that Westwood will not have a shocker in the final round, but he will struggle to get over the finish line in first place: he has finished 3rd in the last two Majors and in the last six times that he has led an event with one round to play, he has only won once - the last time was in February when he led the Dubai Desert Classic after 54 holes, but lost in a playoff to Miguel Angel Jimenez. Being paired with Tiger Woods would normally be a reason to avoid backing a player, but Choi has been paired with him for each of the last three days, so he should be comfortable and far more likely to close the gap on Westwood than fall behind. [unoffial r4 system plays: Kuchar tb Schwartzel +105 (W); Hunter Mahan tb Ian Poulter +116 (W)] |
