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3-0; +8.50pts Round 1 play (4pts): Boo Weekley to beat Eric Axley -120 @ Five Dimes WON by 11
I don't understand this line. Axley lost his Tour Card last year, missed the cut in 27 of 32 events with a best finish of 42nd and had a first-round scoring average of 73.78; Weekley on the other hand made the cut in 19 of 24 events, had a 1st round scoring average that was two shots lower and was a perfect 11-0 h2h against Axley last year. On top of that, Weekley was 6th here in 2007 and Axley is making his course debut. The only plausible reason for this line would be that Weekley is injured and Golf World did report last month that he would be undergoing treatment for an injured heel, but this was quickly denied by Weekley and he said that he always took a two-week break at the beginning of February and that he would probably not require treatment for his heel. If he is healthy, this should be no contest. [unofficial rd1 system plays: Elkington tb Duval -105; Baird tb Slocum +100; Baird tb Ogilvie -105; Baird tb Stadler +110; Wilson M tb Stadler +105; Merrick tb Stadler -111] Round 2 play (2pts): Joe Ogilvie to beat Jarrod Lyle -115 @ Five Dimes WON by 2
No hesitation in opposing a player who had just one top-30 finish in 21 starts on the PGA Tour last year, albeit that one good event was this one, though he did follow his opening 65 with a 71. In fact, he didn't even progress beyond the 2nd Qualifying Stage of Q-School to retain his Card for this year. Yesterday, his putter was very hot, so even though he may have more confidence than last year, his overall game was not great yesterday. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Weekley tb Hayes -125; Elkington tb Duval +105; Tidland tb Gore -120; Bettencourt tb Veazey -120; Canizares tb Campillo -120; Stanley tb Campillo -125; Henry tb Maggert +110] Round 3 play (2pts): Joe Durant to beat Cameron Beckman +105 @ Five Dimes TIED
Durant has better stats than Beckman this week in terms of driving, greens in regulation and putting as he ranks in the top-20 in these categories, so he clearly deserves to be leading this event. Five Dimes have priced him up as the underdog as the leader, but his record when leading after 36 holes is very impressive: he has been in this position five times previously, has always finished in the top-5 and has never been worse than 3rd after the 3rd round. It doesn't look as though he will 'bottle it' today. Round 4 play (2pts): Fran Quinn to beat Steven Wheatcroft +125 @ Five Dimes WON by 5
Should be some value in these odds. Wheatcroft has really struggled on his step up from the Nationwide Tour, finishing 90th, 149th and 140th in his three starts this year and finishing behind Quinn in each common event. Now he has made the cut, but each successive round has been a higher score than the previous one, so I don't see any reason why he would reverse the trend today and shoot a low score. He is clearly feeling the pressure of missed cuts in each of his starts, so the value should be with the more experienced player, particularly at these odds. |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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