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1-2; -3.60pts (system plays: 2-4-0) Round 1 play (2pts): Ryuji Imada to beat Arjun Atwal +103 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, Stan James and Carib] LOST by 7
Dangerous to oppose a player who has held the first round lead in each of his last two events, but Imada could the one to match that feat this week. At 108th in the Money List (and his two-year exemption for his 2008 AT&T Classic expiring at the end of this season), he has plenty of incentive to practice hard for this event. The other factor is that he clearly likes to come back to Georgia where he was a student - since 2005, his finishes in this State have been 15th, 10th, 2nd (playoff loss), 1st, 17th and 20th. That's impressive and he could certainly guarantee his 2011 Tour Card as well as defeat Atwal this week. Round 2 play (4pts): Troy Merritt to beat Rich Barcelo -140 @ 5Dimes LOST by 4
Merritt appears to be playing the much better golf at the moment - he has made the cut in three of his last four starts and has a top-3 finish this season; Barcelo has made the cut in just three of his last fifteen starts and has yet to finish in the top-20 in any event this season. And that difference in form continued yesterday, even though Merritt's score was only one shot better: Merritt hit 16 of 18 greens in regulation (7th best of the day) and his average distance from the pin was less than 20 feet; Barcelo his 11 greens in regulation (ranked 105th of 132) and his average distance from the pin was over 37 feet. On small greens that is very wayward and I can't see his short game saving him for a second day in a row. [unofficial rd2 system play: Haas tb Byrd -105 (L)] Round 3 play (2pts): Jeff Maggert to beat Todd Hamilton +120 @ Centrebet [available generally] TIED
Maggert has been very impressive this week, missing just four greens in regulation out of 36, and currently stands in the top-20. And this is a position from which he has played well - he has been in this situation after 36 holes five times this year and has averaged 68.6 in the third round thereafter. With a dominant 11-5-0 h2h record against Hamilton over the last 12 months, there is little to suggest that he won't continue that h2h dominance this week. Round 4 play (4pts): Joe Durant to beat Troy Merritt -128 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes and Carib] WON by 5
A case of good round-bad round-good round so far for Merritt, so hoping the pattern continues. Both players start the final round in 2nd place, but this is a position with which Durant should be reasonably comfortable. He has started the final round in the top-5 on six occasions in the last five season and has done well, averaging 69.0 in the final round when under such pressure. Merritt has yet to start the final round of a PGA Tour event in the top-5, so he has certainly never started the final round of a PGA Tour event in the final group. That pressure should be too much to enable him to play well again and so Durant should finish ahead of him for the 13th time in 16 common events this year. [unofficial rd4 system play: Durant tb Price -120 (L); Atwal tb Stuard -110 (W); Quinney tb Hamilton A -125 (W); Love tb Pernice +110 (L); Pernice tb Price -110 (L)] |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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