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2-1; +1.90pts (system plays: 2-4-1) Round 1 play (4pts): Jim Furyk to beat Ernie Els +100 @ Paddy Power [also available @ Bet365 and Carib] WON by 6
Little to choose between them on paper: both have won twice on Tour this year and both have won this event. However, Furyk's record in this event is second only to Woods - no-one else has a lower average finishing position that has played here at least 5 times. In 14 starts at Muirfield Village, he has 10 top-25 finishes and has never missed the cut (he was 2nd to Woods last year); Els can't match that. In terms of the predicted 'Memorial Weather', Furyk is generally the better wet weather player and in terms of the quickness of the greens, Els did point to his failings in dealing with their speed following his loss of all nine Skins to Mickelson in today's match. Finally, there is the Wentworth angle. Two weeks ago, Els came in for enormous criticism of his redesign of the home of the BMW PGA Championship. In his own words: "If they had criticisms they could've handled it differently. That's the sad part of the whole week, a lot of the guys I've known for a very long time came out and basically put the knife in and I don't really appreciate that." Naturally, he didn't play particularly well that week, and there may still be some hangover from that very public embarrassment. [unofficial rd1 system play: Furyk tb Choi -110 (W)] Round 2 play (4pts): Fredrik Jacobson to beat Rickie Fowler -105 @ Bet365 LOST by 9
Opposing the 1st round leader for two reasons: (i) he has never held the lead after 18 holes on Tour ... he has only done so on two occasions after 36 holes last year, but on both occasions he failed to hold onto the lead after the next round; and (ii) he played relatively poorly from tee-to-green - he ranked 33rd in greens in regulation - in comparison to Jacobson who lies in 9th place and leads the event so far in greens in regulation. For his part, Jacobson has already finished in the top-5 on this course (2007) and is in the better form having finished 2nd (The Players Championship) and 10th (Texas Open) within the last month. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Sutherland tb Fowler +120 (L); Johnson Z tb McIlroy +105 (T); Johnson Z tb Van Pelt +110 (W); Els tb McIlroy -110 (L)] Round 3 play (2pts): Tom Petrovic to beat Rickie Fowler +105 @ Unibet WON by 1
Continuing to oppose Fowler even though he was very impressive yesterday. Not playing in the morning groups, but last out with the likes Mickelson, Stricker, Furyk, Cink and Day immediately ahead of him should add to the pressure, as will the projected wet weather and possible delays which have forced the tee-times forward. For his part, Petrovic has a good record from this position (he currently lies 3rd): he was 5th after two rounds of the 2010 Texas Open and shot 71 in round 3; in 2009 he was 3rd after two rounds of the John Deere Classic and then shot 66 to take the lead; in 2008, he started the weekend in the top-5 on two occasions and then shot 68 both times; in 2007, he was 4th after two rounds of the Wyndham Championship and then shot 68; and so on. No matter how impressive Fowler was yesterday, I'd back a player at plus odds against him when he has a three-shot lead and has yet to win on Tour. Round 4 play (2pts): Ricky Barnes to beat Rickie Fowler +100 @ Unibet [available generally] TIED
Same as yesterday, I'd back a player at plus odds against Fowler when he has a three-shot lead and has yet to win on Tour. Fowler saw his lead gradually reduced to one until there was a two-shot swing at the penultimate hole with Petrovic struggling in the rough around the green. I'd expect a similar situation today, but Barnes is a far more likely player to overtake Fowler than Petrovic. Not only does he lead the event in greens in regulation, he is in great form at the moment - he shot 62 yesterday and he has finishes of 10th (The Masters), 5th (Verizon Heritage) and 7th (Crowne Plaza Invitational) in the last two months. [unofficial rd4 system plays: Petrovic tb Fowler +125 (L); Furyk tb Mickelson +110 (L)] |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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