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Round 1 play (2pts): Robert Allenby to beat Ernie Els -120 @ Bet365 and Carib [also available @ SkyBet] LOST by 4
Both former winners of this event [Allenby in 2001; Els in 1999], but Allenby has been a regular ever since that victory, recoding top-20 finishes in five of the last six years here whereas Els has played only three times in the last nine years with just one top-20 finish. Els' form may be improved in recent months, but it still cannot match that of Allenby who ranks 2nd in Scoring Average on Tour this season. With the course advantage going to Allenby, he looks the more likely winner of this matchup. Since I am limiting my posted plays to my 'best bet', I will now also post any additional plays that would have qualifed via my 'systems'. These will be listed in declining order of preference. [unofficial rd1 system plays: Stricker tb Kim -139; Allenby tb Weir -138] Round 2 plays (4pts): Troy Matteson to beat Andres Romero -105 @ Five Dimes
Romero has ended the first day in the top-10 on eight occasions since the start of 2008 and has yet to shoot a 2nd round in the 60s when in that position. He is simply too erratic a player who throws in too many double-bogeys during a tournament. In fact, he even had one yesterday and if he has another today, he surely won't be able to compensate with eight birdies again. Matteson is much more consistent and if he continues to have a much better 'average distance to pin' than Romero, he will win this comfortably. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Johnson tb Romero -155; Marino tb Nitties -145; Quinney tb Stadler +105; Austin tb Beem -116; Sim tb Parnevik -161; Weir tb Kuchar +100; Points tb Maruyama -116; Holmes tb Ishikawa -130] |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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