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0-2; -7.20pts (system plays: 5-6-1) Round 1 play (2pts): Lucas Glover to beat Zach Johnson +100 @ Pinnacle [also available @ FiveDimes, Unibet, Carib and WSEX] LOST by 5
Both Major winners, but with two very differing Majors records. Glover has finished in the top-50 in just six of his last 18 Majors, dating back to 2006, whereas Glover has failed to finish in the top-50 just four times in the last four years. With Glover in the better form - he has finished ahead of Johnson in each of their last three common starts - he looks to be good value at these odds. [unofficial rd1 system plays: Villegas tb Fowler +120 (W); Woods tb Mickelson +125 (W); Woods tb Els +100 (L); Garcia tb Scott +115 (L); Garcia tb Kaymer +125 (L); Woods tb McIlroy +130 (T)] Round 3 play (2pts): Carl Pettersson to beat Simon Khan -115 @ The Greek and Carib TIED
Opposing Khan - he's never been in the top-5 during a Major until now! [unofficial rd3 system plays: Watney tb Kuchar +100 (W); Furyk tb Kuchar +101 (W)] Round 4 play (4pts): Jim Furyk to beat Zach Johnson -130 @ Carib [also available @ FiveDimes, Pinnacle, Paddy Power and WSEX] LOST by 7
Furyk hasn't simply been in better form than Johnson recently - Furyk has finished in the top-10 in each of the last two weeks; Johnson's last top-10 finish was in May - but he has been the better player for much longer: Johnson has finished ahead of Furyk just four times over the last 12 months. If we extend that to cover solely final round performances, Johnson has shot the lower final round score just once over the last 12 months. Maybe it is not surprising as Johnson currently ranked 132nd in 'Final Round Scoring Average' on the PGA Tour, so it should be a surprise if he beats Furyk today. [unofficial rd4 system plays: Watney tb Johnson D +115 (L); Kaymer tb Day -133 (W); Furyk tb Dufner -163 (L); Furyk tb Elkington -180 (L)] |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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