|
1-2; -4.00pts Round 1 play (4pts): Robert Allenby to beat Geoff Ogilvy +110 @ Carib [also available @ Paddy Power] LOST by 3
Surprisingly large odds considering I'd make Allenby the favourite in this matchup. He has been much more consistent this year with finishes of 2nd, 9th and 27th on the PGA Tour before the World Matchplay; Ogilvy did win the season-opening SBS Championship, but has since played only in Abu Dhabi (34th) and lost in the 2nd round last week. He may be a regular in this event, but he has missed the cut in four of eight attempts with a best finish of 17th; Allenby has made the cut in six of seven attempts with a best finish of 2nd. Other than Ogilvy being a Scottsdale resident (though that hasn't translated into high finishes in this event in the past), I can't see why Carib make him a -140 favourite. [unofficial rd1 system plays: Villegas tb Ogilvy +100 (W); Kuchar tb Moore R -120 (L); Kuchar tb Kim -115 (L); Glover tb Crane -123 (L); Glover tb Kim -105 (L); Glover tb Mahan -120 (L)] Round 3 play (2pts): Brandt Snedeker to beat Alvaro Quiros -105 @ Carib WON by 5
Opposing Quiros who ranks almost last in driving accuracy and not too far behind in greens in regulation. When the pressure is on, his game also tends to suffer ... the last five times that he has started the weekend in the top-10, he has shot 73, 72, 71, 76 and 67. By contrast, Snedeker has been much more consistent over the weekend and should hold the advantage on his home Tour. [unofficial rd3 system plays: Molder tb Piercy -110 (L); Quiros tb Fowler +100 (L); Moore tb Fowler +105 (L); Baird tb Collins -105 (L); Kim tb Moore -120 (L); Kim tb Quiros -120 (L); Wilson M tb Fowler +130 (L); Perez tb Fowler +100 (L); Allenby tb Villegas +109 (W)] Round 4 play (2pts): Charles Howell to beat Hunter Mahan +106 @ Pinnacle [also available @ Five Dimes, Carib and WSEX] LOST by 3
I can't see why Howell would be such a decisive underdog in this matchup. He has struggled to find the fairway this week, but that is not penalised on this course and he comes into this event in much better form this year than Mahan and with a much better record in this event. Mahan shot the low round of the day yesterday and it is always difficult to follow that. [unofficial rd4 system plays: Every tb Piercy +130; Goggin tb Calcavecchia +100] |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
|
