18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

Odds: 3-Balls

3-0; +8.20pts  (system plays: 8-6-3) 

No round 1 plays.

Round 2 play (4pts):

Heath Slocum to beat J.B. Holmes -105 @ Bet365  WON by 6
Opposing Holmes who aims a share of the lead after the first round with Robert Allenby. It may not be a complete surprise that he started so well, in the month of March he finished the first round in successive tournaments in 5th, 8th and 1st place. In the following rounds, he then shot 70, 74 and 74, so his record (and most particularly relevant given his 74 in the Arnold Palmer Invitational after holding the 1st round lead) suggests that he is unlikely to repeat yesterday's round. Slocum look more likely to continue his run of form, having finished 18th, 8th and 29th in the last four weeks.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Mahan tb McIlroy +100 (W); Moore tb Glover -110  (L); Kuchar tb Crane -110  (L); Allenby tb Perry -140 (W); Westwood tb Choi -140 (W); Donald tb Stenson -120 (W); Henry tb Hoffman -130 (L)]

Round 3 play (2pts):

Francesco Molinari to beat Ryuji Imada -116 @ Pinnacle  [also available @ Five Dimes, The Greek and WSEX]  WON by 5
Particularly, for a player making his course debut, Molinari has been very impressive this week. He leads the field in greens in regulation, including hitting every green in regulation yesterday ... to show how impressive that is, no-one has managed that feat in any round at Sawgrass since the PGA Tour started publishing indivual round stats in 2004. He also ranks in the top-10 in driving accuracy and is ranked 1st in scoring on the par-4s this week. He has been in good form, finishing in the top-30 in each of his strokeplay events since the start of February and his record on American courses is very good: five starts with all but one being in Major Championships or WGC events and with a worst finish of 34th (in the lowest ranking of these events, the 2009 Renoe-Tahoe Open). He is certainly playing well enough and has the pedigree to continue at least in his current 2nd place finish for another round.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Garcia tb Holmes -108 (W); Allenby tb Crane -105 (W); Perry tb Scott +102 (T); Garcia tb O'Hair +105 (L); Garcia tb Scott -105 (T); Kelly tb Stadler +100 (W); Verplank tb Overton +100 (W); Choi tb Donald -103 (T); Slocum tb Glover -110 (L); Perry tb Van Pelt -105 (L)]

Round 4 play (2pts):

Adam Scott to beat Martin Kaymer +110 @ Pinnacle  [also available @ Five Dimes, The Greek and WSEX]  WON by 2
Plenty of value to be found in backing Scott these days. True, he is not the player that he was, but nor is he as bad as the player that he had become from mid-2008 onwards. He rediscovered his form (and apparently his appetite for the game rather than off-course distractions) when finishing 3rd against a strong field in the Singapore Open last November and then followed it with finishes of 6th, 7th, 1st and 12th in Australian events. He missed the cut in Houston last week, but that was his only missed cut since his opening PGA Tour event of the year and now he is playing on a course on which he has won (2004) and had two other top-10 finishes. He admitted in his post-round interview that he was played better than he scored yesterday, that he had really just failed to take advantage of the par-5s - he was level-par for them - and that he would be looking for a score in the mid-60s today. By contrast, Kaymer did finish 3rd in the CA Championship, but has otherwise struggled recently missing his last three cuts on the PGA Tour and has not played since the Masters after which he had the bolts and screws removed from his right foot which he broke in several places last year in a karting accident. I'll take plus odds in this matchup right now.