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3-0; +6.00pts (system plays: 3-6-0) No round 1 plays. Round 2 plays (2pts): Davis Love to beat David Duval -125 @ FiveDimes WON by 5
Would like Duval to play well for sentimental reasons, but I just can't see it happening: he finished the day in 29th place on the leaderboard, but ranked a lowly 112th in greens in regulation. Plus, he has shown early promise on several occasions this year - he has finished the first round in the top-10 three times this year - but in over half of his second round efforts, he has scored 75 or above. Love played far better yesterday and warranted his top-15 position; he should remain there or thereabouts by end of today's play. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Woods tb Westwood -120 (L); Van Pelt tb Chalmers -120 (L); Marino tb Fowler -140 (L); Mickelson tb Furyk -120 (L)] Round 3 play (2pts): Bo Van Pelt to beat Ricky Barnes -105 @ FiveDimes [also available @ Bet365] WON by 3
Not too great a surprise to see Van Pelt fail to hold onto the first round lead, but different players react to such a setback differently - Van Pelt appears to be a player that will not let it end his tournament. He has held the first round lead and lost it in the 2nd round five times on Tour and each time he has shot 71 or better in the 3rd round, including a 67 in last year's Mayakoba Golf Classic to re-take the lead (though he lost it again in the final round). Buoyed by a good run of form that netted him a 14th place finish in the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a 3rd place finish in the Verizon Heritage in two of his last three starts, he could certainly bounce back to match his top-10 finish here in 2006. Not so sure about Barnes after he finished with three bogeys in his last four holes (which included a par-5) - he hasn't shown the same 'bouncebackability' in the past. [unofficial rd3 system plays: Na tb Barnes +120 (W); Mahan tb Watney -105 (L); Johnson D tb Cabrera -110 (W)] Round 4 play (2pts): Scott McCarron to beat Paul Goydos +100 @ Paddy Power [available widely] WON by 7
Easy to oppose Goydos in the final round. He moved into a share of the lead with Billy Mayfair after three birdies in his first eight holes yesterday, but then immediately fell out of it with bogey on the ninth hole and then recorded a three-over-par back nine with no more birdies to fall down to 7th place. He has now shot every round higher than the previous one so far this week and, being currently ranked 178th and averaging 74.00 in final round scoring average this year, it looks as though he will continue to record a higher score in the final round. [unofficial rd4 system plays: Hayes tb Na +110 (L); Allenby tb Ogilvy +100 (W)] |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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