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1-1; +1.90pts Round 1 play (2pts): Nick Watney to beat Dustin Johnson -110 @ Pinnacle [available generally] TIED
More of a bet on Watney than against Johnson as both these big-hitting players should prosper this week given the forecast for calm winds. This is a wide-open course with five par-5s, so it may not be too much of a surprise that when Watney (who ranked 2nd in par-5 performance last year) made his debut here in 2007, he held the lead after the first round, still finishing in the top-5 at the end of the week. Johnson made his course debut last year, but was never in contention and finished just outside the top-10. Maybe one reason for the difference here was putting on the huge Bermuda greens. Both players were equally matched on Tour in 3-Putt Avoidance over the whole season, but Watney is the one with a far better record on Bermuda greens: in Florida, for example, Watney has five top-5 finishes in 21 Tour events; Johnson has five missed cuts in seven Tour events, with a best finish of 35th. These week is all about driving and putting and Watney looks set for another good week on the Plantation course. Round 2 play (4pts): Stewart Cink to beat Dustin Johnson +100 @ Bet365 WON by 2
Johnson may have shot the lower round yesterday by one shot, but it was Cink who arguably played the best golf in the whole field. He ranked in the top-5 in driving distance and accuracy and 1st in greens in regulation, missing just one of 18 greens. I'll back at this price to hole a few more putts to today and shoot a lower score. Round 3 play (2pts): Matt Kuchar to beat Ryan Moore -105 @ Bet365 [also available @ Carib] LOST by 3
Two players with very similar stats and in very similar positions on the leaderboard: Kuchar 3rd and Moore 8th, but it is Kuchar who has impressed the more so far ... he is yet to record a bogey this week. And then there is his record when in such contention: he has started the weekend in the top-10 eight times in the last two seasons; he has finished the weekend inside the top-10 every time. Round 4 play (2pts): Ryan Moore to beat Martin Laird -136 @ Pinnacle [available generally] TIED
Impressed with Moore yesterday even though it cost me with Kuchar and I'll back him to continue in the same vein today. In his post-round interview he talked about employing a swing coach at the start of the Fall Series last year for the first time in his career and how much difference it has made to him: his last three starts have yielded top-10 finishes and he looks certain for another one this week. Laird may be a dark horse from being under the radar (certainly in terms of TV coverage), but he only had two top-10 finishes on the PGA Tour last year; I'd rather back a player in the penultimate group on Sunday who had finished in the top-10 in a quarter of all his PGA Tour and WGC starts last year.
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NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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