18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

Odds: 3-Balls

2-2; -2.20pts

Round 1 play (2pts):

Steve Stricker to beat Ernie Els -125 @ WSEX [also available @ Stan James and Pinnacle]  WON by 3
Els certainly has an impressive record in this event - five top-5 finishes in the space of six years - but the point is that was a long time ago: from 2000 to 2005. When he returned to this event last year, he finished 39th and behind Stricker in 23rd, who recorded top-5 finishes in both 2007 and 2008. But the decline of Els' game is starkly summed up in one statistic: he and Stricker played in 15 common strokeplay events last year, Stricker shot the lower 1st round score 14 times and on the other occasion, they tied. Els did not shoot a lower 1st round score than Stricker in the whole of 2009, so why should he do so this week?

Round 2 play (4pts):

Carl Pettersson to beat Davis Love +110 @ Five Dimes  LOST by 1
Can't see why opposing the (joint) leader would such an attractive price. Love has hardly played well enough in recent years to hold the lead in a Tour event; in fact, he has been the first round leader just twice in the last six years: he shot 83 in the 2nd round of the 2006 Players Championship to miss the cut and he shot 71 in the 2008 Verizon Heritage to fall to 14th after the 2nd round. To show how unusual this current position is, he has not held the after the 2nd round of a Tour Card at all in the last six years. He's definitely worth opposing with a player only one shot back and without the pressure of leading.

Round 3 play (2pts):

Steve Stricker to beat Chad Campbell -140 @ The Greek  WON by 4
Backing Stricker again after he continues to impress: he is 22-under-par for his last five rounds. I would typically expect a 'bounceback' from Campbell after shooting such a low score yesterday, but the short odds on the matchup are warranted under most conditions (except the final round): Stricker finished ahead of Campbell in 12 of 17 common events last year and shot the higher 3rd round score just once.

Round 4 play (2pts):

Tom Lehman to beat Briny Baird -110 @ The Greek [available generally]  LOST by 2
Always profitable to oppose Baird when in the top-15 on Sunday. He has been in this position 25 times over the last five years, breaking 70 just five times and whereas his average 3rd round position in this situation is 8.1, his average 4th round position when in this situation is 15.2 ... he has finished the final round higher up the leaderboard than when he started in just three of those 25 situations. Lehman may be a regular on the Champions Tour now, but he was in this position in the last PGA Tour event of 2009 and shot 69 to remain in the top-15 and he also won a Tour de la Americas Tour event in December so his form was good coming into this event. Currently ranked in the top-10 for driving accuracy, greens in regulation, scrambling and sand saves, his form has clearly continued and I don't see a final round collapse from the veteran.