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2-2; -3.48pts (system plays: 2-3-3) Round 1 play (4pts): Jordan Spieth to beat Matt Weibring -110 @ Five Dimes LOST by 2
Can't see Spieth repeating his performance at the Byron Nelson Championship three weeks ago, but his Junior pedigree is certainly far stronger than the other teenagers that have made the cut in a PGA Tour event in previous years, so I'm likewise not expecting him to buckle under the intense media attention this week. But he only needs to beat one player over 18 holes tomorrow and that will be far easier than being a contender for another PGA Tour title. Weibring has played in eight events over the last three months (including three on the Nationwide Tour), missed the cut in five of them and has a best finish of 38th place, and that was on the Nationwide Tour, so he is hardly a strong opponent for Spieth. To make matters worse for Weibring, he will be playing in the group directly ahead of Spieth, so will have to contend with the media circus readying itself for Spieth's shots throughout his round. Against a journeyman pro, Spieth has a live chance of winning this matchup, just as he did in Monday's U.S. Open qualifier in Memphis. [unofficial rd1 system plays: Spieth tb Mulroy +110 (T); Allenby tb Johnson Z -110 (L); Allenby tb Harrington +105 (L)] Round 2 play (2pts): Padraig Harrington to beat Ryuji Imada -160 @ Extrabet LOST by 6
Harrington is a player that always plays the week before a Major on American soil and he does tend to play very competitively for at least 54 holes: in three of the last four Majors in the U.S., he has been in the top-10 after three rounds in the event preceding the Major. As such, it should be no surprise that he currently lies 3rd and with Lee Westwood leading the event, there should be extra incentive to focus on this event rather than looking ahead to Pebble Beach. An added incentive is that he finished one shot off the winning score two years ago. There is no doubtig the difference in ability between these two players, but it is also evident in their current form: in their last seven starts, Harrington has four top-10 finishes; Imada has a best finish of 29th. [unofficial rd2 system play: Riley tb Owen -105 (W)] Round 3 play (2pts): Tim Petrovic to beat Boo Weekley +106 @ Pinnacle [available generally] WON by 3
Siding with an in-form player at plus odds seems too good to pass up. In the last month, Petrovic has finished 6th in the Texas Open and 5th in last week's Memorial Tournament and while he wouldn't be a player to back when in the top-10 after 54 holes, he has shown recently that he can be backed to continue his form on 'Moving Day', particularly on a course on which he has been a runner-up. Weekly isn't playing poorly, though he has missed the cut in two of his last four events, but he is struggling to be consistent with persistent injuries in his shoulder and feet. He has played well for 36 holes to be one shot behind Petrovic in 10th place, but he looks far more likely to shoot a bad score today. [unofficial rd3 system plays: Austin tb Levin +100 (T); Percy tb DiMarco +100 (W); Holmes tb Ames +105 (L)] Round 4 play (2pts): Heath Slocum to beat Brian Gay -101 @ Pinnacle [available generally] WON by 1
Opposing Gay even though he is the defending champion. For one, it is quite difficult to follow up the low round of the day with another low score; the other is that he didn't really play that well yesterday: he hit all but one fairway, yet still only hit 11 of 18 greens in regulation ... he just had a hot day with the putter (24 putts) and that is much harder to reproduce that being in control of the ball from tee to green. Given that he has only one top-20 finish in the last four months, maybe it isn't a surprise that he hasn't looked like defending his title so far, and that form does not compare to Slocum who has four top-20 finishes in his last six starts (and he has four top-25 finishes in the last five years here). Slocum lies 3rd with a real chance of catching Garrigus and looks far likelier to 'kick on' from here. [unofficial rd4 system play: Ames tb Jacobson +100 (T)] |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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