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1-2; -2.88pts (system plays:
11-2-2)
Round 1 play (4pts): Sergio Garcia to beat Adam Scott +120 @ SkyBet and William Hill LOST by 2
There is no doubt that Scott has been playing the better golf of late and as a multiple winner in Texas, Scott should be the obvious pick in this matchup. However, both of those victories were at the height of Scott's game and while he is rediscovering his form, he is still a long way short of that mark. What about the compatibility of his game to the new course? This is a tight, tree-lined course with greens protected by deep bunkers and run-off areas, so accuracy off the tee and deftness around the green will be of foremost importance. Scott is not recognised as an accurate driver and even with his improved game of late, he still ranks 142nd in the PGA Tour's new stat category, 'Average distance from the centre of the fairway' (Garcia is 45th), which should be a better measure of 'Driving Accuracy' than the traditional measure. In terms of his ability to scramble, Scott ranks 171st (of 181) on the PGA Tour this year in that category, so this course hardly looks ideal for Scott's game. Garcia's game is built around his driving and his deftness around the green, so this course should suit far better. But the clincher is that Garcia co-designed this course with Greg Norman which explains why there is such an emphasis upon driving and creativity around the greens. He has played and walked the course more times than anyone else in this field and has talked in interviews about how the holes were designed with a view to 'fitting his eye'. On a standard TPC course, Scott would be the easy pick in this matchup, but not this week. [unofficial rd1 system play: Singh V tb Rollins +120 (T)] Round 2 play (4pts): Kent Jones to beat Steve Lowery -105 @ Pinnacle [also available @ Five Dimes, The Greek and WSEX] WON by 2
Jones lost his Tour Card last year, but he could be set for a return next year via the Nationwide Tour: he currently ranks 33rd in the Money List after finishes of 9th, 6th, 19th and 27th and has only played half as many events as the players leading the Money List. His confidence should be high and he could easily maintain his current 11th place finish on the leaderboard. By contrast, Lowery has been struggling badly on the PGA Tour, hardly missing an event - he has played in 12 events already - and making the cut just four times with a best finish of 47th. He currently lies 3rd after the first round, but the pressure of making this the week that he earns a large amount of money to re-kindle his chances of retaining his Card will impact on his game as it already has done this year: in the Farmers Insurance Open, he opened with a 67, but then shot 75 in the second round; in the Northern Trust Open, he opened with a 67, but then shot 78 in the second round. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Garcia tb Scott +128 (W); Leonard tb Hoffman +124 (W); Levin tb Leishman +100 (W); Jacobson tb Jones M -120 (W); Letzig tb Maggert -105 (W)] Round 3 play (2pts): Ernie Els to beat J.B. Holmes -144 @ Pinnacle [available generally]
LOST by 3
Opposing Holmes who, as one of the most erratic drivers on the Tour, should not find this course well-suited to his game. In that respect, it has helped that the fairways are wet, but he still only hit half of the fairways yesterday and if he continues like that today, he should find the wet rough particularly penal. He did play well last week at Sawgrass, but he is still without a top-10 finish in the last three months, whereas Els has won twice in the last two months and has six other top-20 finishes to his name this year. Els also sounded very comfortable with his game in interview yesterday and, unlike Holmes, he had a morning tee-time so had plenty of time to rest and prepare for 36 holes on a long, wet course today. [unofficial rd3 system plays: Hoffman tb Driscoll -140
(W); Jacobson tb Levin -138 (W); Walker tb Wetterich -105 (L); Petrovic tb Price -115
(T); Hoffman tb Jones M +100 (W); Owen tb Willis +100 (L); Mulroy tb Wetterich +110
(W); Walker tb Nitties -105 (W); Levin tb Perez -101 (W)] |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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