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2-2; +1.90pts (system plays: 7-6-1) Round 1 play (2pts): Camilo Villegas to beat Luke Donald +115 @ FiveDimes [also available @ Carib] LOST by 7
Good odds to back Villegas given his course history: he won here on his debut in 2007 and finished 9th the following year. His course scoring average is 2.25 shots better than Donald's, who has finished 14th, 5th and 25th in his three attempts. Donald has clearly been playing better this year than Villegas, but there is no pressure on Villegas this week (at least not for now) as he entered the event in 25th place in the FedEx Cup standings; Donald has a much realistic chance of winning the $10 million prize as he enters the week in 7th place and that creates additional pressures on top of the distraction that is the Ryder Cup that is only a week away. [unofficial rd1 system plays: Villegas tb Johnson Z +100 (W); Mickelson tb Johnson D +100 (W); Mickelson tb Kuchar +105 (W)] Round 2 play (4pts): Luke Donald to beat Geoff Ogilvy -120 @ Paddy Power [available generally] WON by 1
Impressive round by Donald yesterday and a surprising one by Ogilvy. Whereas Donald has six top-5 finishes in his last 14 starts, Ogilvy has managed just one top-10 finish since the season-opening event. He has started well in previous events, but in the four times that he has finished the first round in the top-10 this year, he has failed to break 70 the following day; in the only previous occasion that he held the 1st round lead this year (Memorial Tournament), he shot 77 the following day. When Donald last held the first round lead (2010 Madrid Masters), he went on to win wire-to-wire. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Johnson D tb Van Pelt -140 (L); Johnson D tb Day -125 (L); Mickelson tb Mahan -133 (L); Watney tb Moore -120 (L); Stricker tb Overton -165 (W); Casey tb Ogilvy -110 (L); Stricker tb Casey -115 (W)] Round 3 play (2pts): Adam Scott to beat Camilo Villegas -105 @ FiveDimes LOST by 1
Villegas closed with four birdies to climb above Scott on the leaderboard, but it has been Scott who has been playing the better golf in the Playoffs - his finishes of 9th, 5th and 15th compare well with Villegas' finishes of 64th, 61st and 11th. With Scott also being a former winner on this course (2006), I'd expect him to continue his recent form and climb up the leaderboard today. [unofficial rd3 system plays: Stricker tb Goosen +100 (L); Scott tb Day +105 (W); Scott tb Johnson D +125 (W)] Round 4 play (2pts): Luke Donald to beat Geoff Ogilvy -120 @ The Greek [available generally] WON by 5
Similar reasons to the 2nd round play which won - Ogilvy has yet to shoot a lower round than Donald this week - but another reason is the weather. Donald is a good wet weather player, whereas Ogilvy is certainly not. They have played in 11 common rounds over the last five years in wet weather and, whereas Donald averages 70.27 in these 'wet' rounds, Ogilvy averages 73.09. |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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