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2-0; +4.24pts Round 1 play (4pts): Vijay Singh to beat Padraig Harrington +110 @ FiveDimes VOID (Singh dns)
Surprised by this price. Pod was poor on Sunday and even though he did finish 3rd, it was the first time in over 5 years (13 events) that he had finished in the top-10 in an event in Florida. With no course experience, he really shouldn't be the favourite against Singh who has been playing much better (he has ranked 2nd and 3rd in greens in regulation in the last two weeks' events) and whose course form record reads: 2nd, 1st, mc, 19th, 19th. [unofficial rd1 system play: Furyk tb Harrington +115 (W)] Round 2 play (2pts): Jerry Kelly to beat James Nitties -165 @ FiveDimes WON by 3
Opposing Nitties even though he finished 3rd last week in Puerto Rico ... he had missed each of his previous six cuts this year and missed the cut here last year. In fact, Nitties has shot a higher score than Kelly in every single round this year. With the Australian playing in the much easier conditions yesterday morning and still finishing behind Kelly on the leaderboard, I can't see a reversal of relative fortunes today. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Holmes tb Snedeker -125; Holmes tb Moore R -110; Jones tb Laird -116; Sutherland tb Johnson R -145; Points tb Barnes -130; Fowler tb Byrd -120] Round 3 play (2pts): Jim Furyk to beat Padraig Harrington +112 @ Pinnacle [also available @ FiveDimes, Carib and WSEX] WON by 5
Surprised to see Furyk as such a large underdog. Harrington does have a one-shot lead to defend and for all his Major Championship titles, he has held the lead after 36 holes just once previously since the start of the 2008 season. Going further back to the 2003 season, Harrington has held the 36-hole lead eight times, but has shot below 70 in the 3rd round just once. Admittedly, Furyk hasn't won since 2007, but that will matter more tomorrow, his track record suggests that he will remain in contention for at least 18 more holes. [unofficial rd3 system plays: Toms tb Byrd +100 (L); Purdy tb Duval +100 (L); Pavin tb Daly -103 (L); Quinney tb Cejka -106 (T)] No round 4 play. |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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