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3-0; +8.62pts (system plays: 8-8-1)
No round 1 plays. Round 2 play (4pts): Steve Stricker to beat Rory McIlroy +100 @ Bet365 WON by 3
No doubting that Stricker is far more suited to the U.S. Open than McIlroy, who admitted in his press conference this week that he was not a patient person. That showed yesterday when he took seven on the 14th hole yesterday and rather than bounce back, he dropped two further shots over the last four holes to completely fall off the leaderboard. He is a player that is more likely to 'chase' today rather let the field come to him and that should only lead to more difficulties on this ever-hardening course, particularly as his long game was awry yesterday. Whereas McIlroy ranked 121st in greens in regulation yesterday, Stricker ranked in the top-20 in driving distance, driving accuracy and greens in regulation. His game has been improving since returning from shoulder injury (17th last time out) and if he could scramble a little better than yesterday, he should certainly climb back up the leaderboard today. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Stricker tb Casey +100 (L); Goydos tb Noh -105 (L); Woods tb Westwood -105 (L); Jimenez tb Funk +150 (L); Estes tb Davis +105 (L); McDowell tb Casey +100 (W); Dyson tb Cejka +105 (L); Ishikawa tb Watson -125 (T); Choi tb Weir -110 (W); Clark tb Weir -125 (W)] Round 3 play (2pts): Phil Mickelson to beat Paul Casey +125 @ Paddy Power WON by 4
It was a good recovery from Casey to shoot 73 after a snowman on his 5th hole of his round yesterday, but having only hit 50% of greens in regulation so far this week, there is clearly some justification to his post-rd1 interview when he expressed surprise that he had scored so well. He wasn't hitting the ball particularly well and had been relying on his scrambling skills, so didn't sound too confident about the rest of the week. That certainly wasn't the case with Mickelson yesterday and he looks set for at least another 2nd place finish in this event. Casey may stay on his coattails for 18 holes, but it will become increasingly difficult as the pressure builds unless he can find his 'A-game'. Warning: this price looks suspiciously wrong. [unofficial rd3 system plays: Woods tb Westwood -115 (W); McDowell tb Els +125 (W); Curtis tb Davies +100 (W); Gates tb Herman +105 (W); De Jonge tb Cejka -105 (L); Cabrera-Bello tb Havret +100 (L); Johnson D tb Els -105 (W)] Round 4 play (2pts): Graeme McDowell to beat Dustin Johnson +106 @ Pinnacle [available generally]
WON by 8
Point One: look at the history of players who held the lead heading into the final round of the U.S. Open. In 2009, Ricky Barnes shot 76 (finished 2nd); in 2008, Tiger Woods shot 73 (won via a playoff); in 2007, Aaron Baddeley shot 80 (finished 13th); in 2006, Phil Mickelson shot 74 (finished 2nd) and Kenneth Ferrie shot 76 (finished 6th); in 2005, Retief Goosen shot 81 (finished 11th). Only once has the 3rd round leader gone on to win the U.S. Open in the last five years and that was Tiger Woods; the average score of the pre-round leader on Sunday has been almost 77. Point Two: Johnson is not a proven finisher. A lot has been made of the fact that he has won the last two AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Ams, but he only won in 2009 because the final round was washed out and earlier this year, he shot 74 in the final round, breaking par on just two par-fives all day, and was gifted the lead when the previous leader, Paul Goydos, took nine on the 14th. Johnson has never held the 3rd round lead in any other event. The remaining points are that in the final round of a Major he has never even started in the top-20 previously, that he said that he will continue to hit driver off the tee today despite the forecast for winds to rise throughout the day (to over 20 kmh), and that he will have Phil Mickelson and Tiger Woods in the two groups ahead of him. As a result, I will be very surprised if he matches Tiger in 2008 and shoots 73 today, whereas a score in the 80s like Baddeley and Goosen is a distinct possibility if he drops a shot early on. I'm not sure that McDowell will be the player to win this event from three back, but his score should be much more predictable whereas Johnson looks set to follow the trend of recent U.S. Open leaders and struggle today. |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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