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2-0; +8.80pts (system plays: 0-1-0) Round 1 play (4pts): John Senden to beat Bryce Molder -105 @ Bet365 WON by 6
Molder has certainly put himself on the golf betting radar with four top-10 finishes in his last seven starts, but beneath his scoring stats he has not been striking the ball particularly well recently: in his last four events he missed the cut and then ranked 54th, 38th and 66th in greens in regulation of the 70 or so players that did make the cut. And the TPC Louisiana is a course on which hitting the greens in regulation is the most important aspect of the game. In the three years that this course has hosted this event, the winner has been ranked 1st, 3rd and 9th in greens in regulation, so it may be little wonder that Molder has missed the cut on both occasions that he has played here, averaging 74.50 around this course. That compares with Senden who has finished 34th and 12th and always ranks highly in the greens in regulation stats. He appears the more likely to secure the top-10 finish this week. [unofficial rd1 system play: Kelly tb Weekley -110 (L)] Round 2 play (4pts): Charlie Wi to beat Spencer Levin +120 @ Stan James WON by 2
Wi hit more fairways and more greens than Levin yesterday and would have been in the top-25 but for back-to-back double-bogeys on his 13th and 14th holes of the day. He did recover well though with two birdies in his last three holes and that should give him confidence that he can get back under the cut line today. He may find it difficult to repeat last year's 2nd place finish on this course, but he has played well here and can shoot low again. By contrast, Levin missed the cut on his previous appearance and closed with three consecutive bogeys near the end of his round. He looks less likely to bounce back and get under the cut line. No further plays due to the weather disruption. |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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