18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

Odds: 3-Balls

2-2; +2.00pts  (system plays: 3-5-0) 

Round 1 play (2pts):

Pat Perez to beat Charley Hoffman +108 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek, Carib and Boyle Sports]  LOST by 1
Two former winners in this matchup - Perez won in 2009; Hoffman won in 2007 - so there appears to be little gained by trying to separate them in terms of comfort with the pro-am format. However, Perez can be backed as the more in-form player. He shot 69-70 last week and was unlucky to be MDF after the last two rounds had to be played on Sunday, whereas Hoffman finished 25th of 32 in his previous start in the Hyundai Tournament of Champions. And there may a good reason for his erratic performance that week: his first child was born in November and he has admitted that he 'forgot about golf' during the off-season and that it 'flew by'. So, he may have been underprepared for the season-opener two weeks ago, but it also appears that this week is still not a priority: 'it [the Bob Hope Classic] remains a tune-up for the following week at Torrey Pines. ... It is my major on the West Coast, there is no bigger tournament for me than Torrey Pines". With Perez also having the lower scoring average at SilverRock, he warrants the favouritism in this matchup and not Hoffman.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Weir tb Streelman +120 (L); Toms tb Laird +130 (L); Jacobson tb Sabbatini +160 (W)]

Round 2 play (4pts):

Brian Davis to beat Garrett Willis -114 @ Extrabet [also available @ William Hill and Bet365]  WON by 7
Willis looked like a player making his season debut yesterday, making just three birdies on the easiest course in this week's rotation. He currently languishes in 81st place, a long way behind Davis who would have finished the day in the top-5 but for finding water when trying to reach the par-5 18th hole in two. Davis is, by far, the better player and looks set to finish ahead of Willis for the sixth consecutive event. William Hill and Bet365 rightly make the Englishman a very strong favourite in this matchup, Extrabet's odds are clearly out-of-line.

[unofficial rd2 system play: Imada tb Pampling -111 (W)]

Round 3 play (2pts):

Kenny Perry to beat Brian Davis -105 @ 5Dimes  TIED
Davis was a convincing winner yesterday, but it is now time to oppose him now that he is in the top-5. He did manage to continue his form from this position in the Crowne Plaza Invitational last year, but in the other two occasions that he was in the top-5 after 36 holes last year, he dropped to 18th and 23rd after the 3rd round. Perry has been playing well this week and only a cold putter kept him from keeping up with Davis yesterday. Around the tougher SilverRock course he could certainly catch Davis.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Dufner tb Stadler +120 (L); Stanley tb Couch +115 (W)]

Round 4 play (2pts):

Jason Dufner to beat Kevin Stadler +120 @ Boyle Sports  LOST by 1
Both players outside the top-40 but inside the cut-line, so it will take a a very low score today to them back into contention. In this respect, motivation should be a factor and that points to Dufner from this position. Stadler started the penultimate round outside the top-40 on five occasions last year, averaged 72.40 and always finished the penultimate round in a lower position than he started the day; Dufner started the penultimate round outside the top-40 on six occasions last year, averaged 70.17 and finished the penultimate round in a higherer position than he started the day in five out of six occasions. With Stadler shooting the lower round score just once in any weekend in 2010, I don't see why Dufner should be the underdog.

Round 5 play (2pts):

Kevin Na to beat Martin Laird -105 @ Bet365  WON by 7
Opposing Laird who is in the final group with two very inexperienced players on the PGA Tour and may well find himself with the lead early in the round. On last year's showing, he was not exactly comfortable in this position on Sundays and so this may well be a final group in which they all struggle to perform. Na, by contrast, is five shots off the pace and in 9th place, so will be playing without any of the pressure on the final group. He comes off a 20th place finish last week and a top-10 finish here last year and has a very good history when in contention on the PGA Tour. Aside from last year's Tour Championship, in the 12 previous occasions that he has entered the final round of the PGA Tour in the top-10, he has always shot an under-par round and averages 68.83 from that position.

[unofficial rd5 system plays: Kuchar tb Haas B -125 (L); Summerhays tb Bradley K +105 (L)]