18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

Odds: 3-Balls

3-1; +6.00pts  (system plays: 5-4-1) 

Round 1 play (2pts):

Matt Kuchar to beat Nick Watney +100 @ Pinnacle and Bet365 [available generally]  LOST by 1
Opposing Watney who has a poor record in this event and in Texas generally. He has opted not to play in this event in each of the last two years, but before that his finishes here had been: mc, 61st, mc, 31st. In the 13 previous times that he has played in Texas, he has yet to record a top-10 finish. Kuchar has recorded top-10 finishes in six of his 23 previous starts in this State and has yet to miss the cut in three previous starts in this event. With little to separate them in terms of recent form, Kuchar is the player who should be favourite in this State, at least.

[unofficial rd1 system play: Jobe tb Stroud +100 (W)]

Round 2 play (2pts):

Sergio Garcia to beat Marc Leishman -120 @ Boyle Sports  WON by 11
Easy to oppose a player who ranked last in fairways hit yesterday - he hit only three all day. With that lack of control off the tee, it will be an effort for Leishman to make the cut today - it would be his fourth missed cut in six events. Sergio, meanwhile, continues his steady return to his former self - he has finished in the top-35 in every start over the last seven months and ended the 1st round in 3rd place. A former winner of this event (2004), this really should be as easy as it gets apart from one issue - the fingernail infection that caused him to pull out of Monday's qualifying for the Open Championship. He didn't play on either Tuesday or Wednesday, but the cream and antibiotics appear to have worked and every new day should see an improvement in that ailment.

[unofficial rd2 system play: Singh tb Kim A -125 (L)]

Round 3 play (2pts):

Keegan Bradley to beat Josh Teater +100 @ Paddy Power [available generally]  WON by 4
Two players who have had very similar weeks so far, but have tended to have different trajectories at the weekend this year - Bradley has never been beaten by Teater in the 3rd round either this year or in any previous year. Teater ranks 176th (of 185) in 3rd round scoring this year, which helps to explain why he is outside the top-150 in scoring average. He is currently on the bubble for the Money List for retaining his Tour Card in 2012 basically because no-one else has played in more events this year than Teater. Currently 8th, this could make (or break) his season and that pressure tends to lead to a poor performance. Bradley should finish ahead of him yet again.

[unofficial rd3 system play: Stanley tb Bowditch +110 (W)]

Round 4 play (4pts):

Nick Watney to beat Dustin Johnson -125 @ 5Dimes, Bet365 and Carib [available generally]  WON by 1
Johnson came back into contention yesterday as he shot 69 in the much easier morning conditions - he teed off at 8:48am - whereas Watney started the day in 5th place and played in the worst of the conditions - no player in the last 15 groups that teed off Saturday managed to shoot a round under par. In the last five groups, the collective score was 33-over-par. The weather will be much the same today, but this time Watney and Johnson will be facing the same conditions and Watney is the far better play in wind. He is also playing far better than Johnson - Watney ranks 7th in Scoring Average this year; Johnson 98th - and has finished behind him just once this year. This h2h dominance should continue today.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Jobe tb Collins -110 (L); Bradley K tb Speith -125 (W); Palmer tb Imada -125 (L); Rollins tb Imada +105 (T); Singh tb Taylor -124 (W); Rollins tb Atwal -120 (W); Quinney tb Gordon -150 (L)]