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1-3; -6.84pts (system plays: 5-4-3) Round 1 play (2pts): George McNeill to beat Brendan Steele +105 @ 5Dimes WON by 3
Surprised to see McNeill as the underdog in this matchup. He comes off a 2nd place finish in the Viking Classic last week and in his last eight starts, he has had five top-50 finishes; in Steele's last eight starts he has had just two top-50 finishes and both of those came in European Tour events - the Open de France and the Scottish Open. With Steele having already played in 21 events this year (nine more than McNeill) and averaging a poor 72.0 in the first round, he should struggle to beat McNeill who is in the better form and who finished in the top-3 in his last Canadian Open start. [unofficial rd1 system play: Moore tb Mahan -102 (L)] Round 2 play (4pts): Woody Austin to beat Paul Goydos -110 @ 5Dimes LOST by 6
Opposing Goydos in the 2nd round. He is only playing here because he cracked a rib at the Colonial nine weeks ago and since he has returned to the Tour he has finished mc, 76th, and mc. As such, it is a major surprise that he is 2nd after the opening round, but it looks unlikely to last. He was last in his position in the Frys.com Open last year and shot 74 in the 2nd round to drop to 26th - it is the only time in the past decade that he has finished the 1st round one shot behind the leader. Austin has yet to finish behind Goydos in an event this year and is 5-for-5 in 2nd round scores against him this year. With Austin showing enough form and control of his ball to keep out of the rough, he should shoot the lower score today. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Price tb Martin -135 (W); Campbell tb Rollins -118 (W)] Round 3 play (2pts): Hunter Mahan to beat Ryan Moore -102 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes] LOST by 6
Both players currently lie in 37th place and both players have started the weekend outside the top-35 on three occasions this year: Mahan has shot 72-67-66 in the 3rd round and finished 55th, 16th, 30th; Moore has shot 69-71-76 in the 3rd round and finished 73rd, 68th and 28th. Mahan, as the more generably consistent player, is understandably the more consistent when virtually out of contention. And then there is their record in Saturday play: whereas Mahan averages less than 70 this year, Moore average 71.25 and ranks 124th on Tour. [unofficial rd3 system play: Chalmers tb Stallings -110 (L)] Round 4 play (2pts): Ryan Moore to beat Geoff Ogilvy -125 @ Stan James [also available @ Bet365] LOST by 5
Moore impressed yesterday and a continuation of his run of each round being lower than the previous one should see him as a major challenger for this title. He finished 2nd last month - his third top-5 finish of the season - and he did finish 2nd when this course was last used in 2005, so he could continue maintain his momentum. By contrast, Ogilvy's last six finishes have been wd, 66th, mc, mc, 57th, and mc, so his current 5th place position is a surprise and so it will also be a surprise if he can maintain this newly discovered form when under the pressure of final day golf. [unofficial rd4 system plays: Campbell tb Bradley -120 (T); Moore tb Bradley -138 (L); Thompson tb Bettencourt -139 (T); Blanks tb Daly -138 (W); Mathis tb Piercy -105 (L); O'Hair tb Daly -175 (W); Hadwin tb Daly -135 (T); Blanks tb Price -117 (W)] |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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