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3-1; +7.90pts (system plays: 3-2-0) Round 1 play (2pts): Matt Kuchar to beat Dustin Johnson +100 @ 5Dimes [also available @ William Hill and Paddy Power] WON by 2
Backing last year's standout player - Kuchar led the Tour in money won, scoring average and all-around ranking, among others - to continue where he left off in 2010. He does have a good history here, having finished 3rd last year, and he kept himself in competitive shape over the off-season with appearances in the Chevron World Challenge and the Shark Shootout (as did Johnson). Johnson is a strong opponent, but his previous record on the Plantation Course is not as impressive as his power golf should imply: he has finished outside the top-10 in both of his previous apperances here. He did start well last year, but that is not something that he has often repeated: the last time that Kuchar failed to shoot the lower 1st round score on the PGA Tour was back in June 2010 at the U.S. Open. [unofficial rd1 system play: Byrd tb Crane +105 (W)] Round 2 play (4pts): Robert Garrigus to beat Ryan Palmer -105 @ Bet365 WON by 9
Two reasons for this play. First, Palmer has never done well on the Plantation Course - he has played here twice previously and, in 2005, he finished 5th-last and, in 2009, he finished 3rd-last. Second, Garrigus is a player who kicks on from a good start and fades after a bad one - last year, for example, he averaged 68.27 in the 2nd round after an opening round in the 60s, whereas he averaged 72.73 in the 2nd round after an opening round in the 70s. He opened with a four-under-par 69 yesterday. Palmer's 'good start-bad start' effect is much more standard and smaller - he averaged 70.67 in the 2nd round after an opening round in the 60s, whereas he averaged 72.15 in the 2nd round after an opening round in the 70s. He opened with a 70 yesterday. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Kim tb Appleby +115 (W); Poulter tb Palmer -150 (W); Kim tb Watson -120 (L)] Round 3 play (2pts): Carl Pettersson to beat Robert Garrigus -105 @ Carib [available generally] LOST by 2
Surprised to see Garrigus priced as the favourite in this 3rd round matchup. He was a big winner yesterday, but now that he has a one-shot lead, he is not a player to side with. He has started the day in the lead five times on the PGA Tour and each time he has shot 71 or higher, including one time after 36 holes: it was the 2010 Reno-Tahoe Open he shot 73-74 over the weekend. Pettersson looked very impressive yesterday and is in the perfect position to put pressure on Garrigus. [unofficial rd3 system play: Lamely tb Mediate +110 (L)] Round 4 play (4pts): Bill Haas to beat Jason Day +100 @ Pinnacle, Paddy Power and WSEX [available generally] WON by 1
Two players who start the final round in the top-10, but with very different previous histories from this position. Haas has been here nine times in the last two years and averaged 69.11 in the final round; Day has also been in this position nine times in the last two seasons, but has a best-score of 69 from this position and has averaged 71.22. |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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