0-1; -2.00pts (system plays: 8-4-0) No round 1 plays. Round 2 play (4pts): Webb Simpson to beat Gary Woodland -120 @ Stan James TIED Simpson continues to impress and even though he starts the day two shots behind playing partner, Luke Donald, he will be playing without the Englishman's pressure to maintain his current 1st place position. With five of his last six finishes in the top-10 (including two wins) and none of Woodland's in the top-10, it is clear who is in the better form. This is also an unusual position for Woodland - he has never led a Tour event after either 18 or 36 holes. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Couch tb Gainey +100 (L); Piercy tb Stallings -110 (L); Atwal tb Green -104 (L); Kim tb Martin -110 (W); Leonard tb Ogilvie -125 (W)] Round 3 play (2pts): Cameron Tringale to beat Justin Leonard +100 @ Paddy Power LOST by 5 Standard play to oppose the player who shot the lowest round of the day in the previous round. Admittedly, he also held the lead after 36 holes two years ago and eventually lost out in a playoff, but that is the only time that he has held the 36-hole lead in any event over the last six years. His form has been so bad that he called the PGA Tour HQ a couple of months to check on his playing status - he ranks 144th in the Money List - and was relieved to find out that he was exempt for another year, so maybe he won't be playing with Tour Card pressure today, but his game hasn't shown that it can live with the pressure of leading a PGA Tour event. Round 4 play (2pts): Webb Simpson to beat Trevor Immelman -120 @ Paddy Power TIED For the fourth day in a row, Simpson is paired with Donald but this time it will be a triumphal day for Simpson. Donald has to jump at least 12 places to 2nd and make a five-shot deficit. That would take a 'round-of-the-year' performance, but he hasn't looked capable of this on the Magnolia course this week and unusually ranks outside the top-40 in both driving accuracy and greens in regulation this week. So with no pressure on Simpson, I can only see him shooting a decent score today. Immelman has been playing better recently, but has finished behind Simpson in 15 of 18 common events this year. [unofficial rd4 system plays: O'Hern tb Bowditch -150 (W); Rollins tb Stallings -130 (W); Mayfair tb Chappell -120 (W); Chalmers tb Stallings -111 (W); Kang tb Kim -113 (W); Stenson tb Chappell -110 (L); Gomez tb Bettencourt -120 (W)] |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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