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18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

 

Odds: 3-Balls

Crowne Plaza Invitational
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1-1; -0.02pts  (system plays: 9-5-2) 

Round 1 play (2pts):

Kenny Perry to beat Tom Lehman +132 @ Extrabet [also available @ 5Dimes, Pinnacle, The Greek and WSEX]  TIED
Worth a punt at these odds. Lehman has won three of his last five starts on the Champions Tours, but this is not the Champions Tour, but the Colonial event where Lehman has finished in the top-10 just once in the last 15 years. Over that period, Perry has twice been a winner here, holds the course record and held the lowest winning-score in this event until Zach Johnson bettered it last year. In his own words two years ago, "when I come here, no matter how I'm playing, I feel like I can win". I can't see him winning this week, but he comes off a good performance in last week's Players Championship and another top-20 finish here looks probable.

[unofficial rd1 system play: Dufner tb Holmes +100 (V)]

 

Round 2 play (4pts):

John Mallinger to beat Corey Pavin +100 @ Extrabet  TIED
Mallinger has been struggling for form for some time, but he returned to the Nationwide Tour last time out and it worked - he recorded a top-10 finish. Yesterday, even though his greens-in-regulation stats were poor, he still managed to finish the day in 21st place and eight shots ahead of Pavin who struggled in the easiest section of the day. Only five players shot a higher score than Pavin yesterday and it is difficult to see how he can bounce back from that opening round.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Trahan tb Kirk -110 (W); Gay tb Laird -109 (L); Haas B tb Laird -120 (W); Cink tb Palmer -145 (L); Haas B tb Palmer -133 (W); Marino tb Trahan -125 (W)]

 

Round 3 play (2pts):

Stewart Cink to beat Brian Gay -106 @ Pinnacle [available generally]  LOST by 4
Two players with good course histories and very good to back in matchups. Cink has made the cut all 13 previous visits to Colonial; Gay has made the cut in 10 of 11 previous visits; Cink has made the cut in 10 of his last 11 starts; Gay has made the cut in his last eight starts. However, while both predictably have made the cut and currently lie in 14th place, Cink is the far likelier to improve on that position and make up the four-shot gap to 2nd place.

 

Round 4 play (2pts):

David Toms to beat Charlie Wi +105 @ Centrebet [available generally]  WON by 2
It was certainly an unusual day yesterday - it was very strange to see a player with a seven-shot lead after 36 holes, but not so unusual that a player with such a big lead or a player coming off one (or two) very low round struggles the following day. Can Toms bounce back from yesterday's performance. His recent history suggests that he can: last week he held the sole 36-hole lead in the Players Championship, lost it during the 3rd round, but bounce back on the Sunday to earn a playoff place; in the McGladrey Classic in October, he dropped from sole lead to 4th after the 3rd round, but bounced back to finish 3rd. Now it will be Wi's turn to defend the lead in the windy conditions and this is a 54-hole position that he has never been in on the PGA Tour (the last time on any Tour was back in 2004). He has held the lead in two PGA Tour events after 36 holes previously, but lost that lead during the next round.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Toms tb Senden -118 (W); Toms tb Gay +100 (W); Sabbatini tb Senden -110 (T); Na tb Reavie -154 (L); Mahan tb Marino -111 (W); Karlsson tb McGirt -150 (W); Senden tb Wilson M +105 (W); Cejka tb Atwal -118 (L); McGirt tb Reavie -120 (L); Palmer tb Bowditch -133 (T)]

NOTES

There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball' matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.

Note that '2pts' represents 'to win 2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents '2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).