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2-1; -0.40pts (system plays: 1-1-0) No round 1 plays. Round 2 play (4pts): Vaughn Taylor to beat Tommy Gainey -110 @ 5Dimes LOST by 8
Gainey is making the most of his second shot on the PGA Tour - he has played in every tournament so far this year, apart from the Tournament of Champions for which he wasn't eligible. This will be his eighth straight week of Tour golf and, even though he started well and currently lies in 20th place, fatigue will surely be a factor sooner rather than later and particularly in the very strong winds forecast for today. Taylor, by contrast, has played in just four events this year, finishing 25th, 49th, 26th and 25th, so his form clearly points to a continuation of his current top-20 position in this event. And then there is today's weather forecast. It should be a sizeable advantage for Taylor that he tees off first at 6:50am and by the time that Gainey tees off in the very last group at 1:09pm, the greens should have become extremely slick and the course very difficult from a day of 30 km/h winds. Round 3 play (2pts): Matt Kuchar to beat Lee Westwood +100 @ Bet365 [also available @ Stan James] WON by 3
Backing Kuchar in this matchup. He is a former champion in this event and has continued the form that he showed throughout 2010: over the last three months, he has secured top-10 finishes in five of six starts. Westwood has failed to record a top-10 finish in any of four starts over the same period and while he may be strongly motivated to re-gain his #1 position in the World Rankings, he should struggle against Kuchar in this form and on the PGA Tour. In fact, the only real concern would be fatigue as Kuchar played in all five days of last week's World Matchplay, whereas Westwood lost in the second round. [unofficial rd3 system play: Leonard tb Senden +100 (W)] Round 4 play (2pts): Y.E. Yang to beat Jerry Kelly -149 @ Unibet WON by 1
Backing the better player who is a former winner of this event (2009) on this course. Yang also has the better record when in this position - they are both tied for 2nd after 54 holes: Yang has won in each of the four times that he has been in this position; Kelly has won just once in the last eight times that he has started the final round in the top-3 and three of those eight occasions, he didn't even finish the event in the top-10. [unofficial rd4 system play: Howell tb Kelly -118 (L)] |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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