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1-3; -5.10pts (system plays: 2-1-0) Round 1 play (2pts): Davis Love to beat Jhonattan Vegas +107 @ Pinnacle [available generally] LOST by 1 * Nice EIGHT on the penultimate hole, Davis! *
This may be Vegas' 'home' event on the PGA Tour, but I think that there is more value in opposing him at the moment. He won the Bob Hope Classic in January and finished 3rd the following week in the Farmers Insurance Open and he also made his debut in a WGC event earlier this month and will make his debut in a Major next week in The Masters. A consequence of that success has been fame and he has remarked in several interviews recently about the difficulty of managing his time because of all the media that he has now to "deal with" (in his own words). So far this month, he has finished 70th in the Honda Classic, 31st in the limited field Cadillac Championship and missed the cut by seven shots last week at Bay Hill. The external pressures are clearly affecting his game and that pressure is increased this week because of his links to Houston. He may well re-discover his January form, but a score in the high 70s looks just as likely and so he is opposed at these odds. Round 2 play (2pts): Robert Allenby to beat Vaughn Taylor -145 @ 5Dimes LOST by 1
Apart from last week when I backed him in the first round, Allenby has been his usual mark of consistency - though he did follow his opening 79 with rounds of 69, 71 and 70 to finish 38th. It was hte first time in four strokeplay events that he has not finished in the top-25, but 25th marked the best finish of Taylor's seven-event season so far. So, it is no surprise that Allenby dominates te head-to-head stats: he has finished ahead of Taylor in six of their last seven common events and in the second round, he holds an emphatic 14-2-1 h2h lead since the start of last season. The odds may be short, but the Australian's dominance of this matchup is clear. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Harrington tb Els -113 (W); Stricker tb Goosen -124 (W)] Round 3 play (2pts): Steve Stricker to beat Lee Westwood -110 @  Paddy Power WON by 7
Westwood may have ended 2010 at the #1 in the World Rankings, but not only has he now lost that position, he has not looked like the player who ended the 2010 season. In six starts in 2011, his best finish is 15th and, currently in 21st place, he looks unlikely to beat that mark this week. Averaging 71.50 so far this season, he certainly remains a player to oppose for now. Round 4 play (2pts): Hunter Mahan to beat Padraig Harrington -110 @ William Hill TIED (loss)
A poor end to his round and three bogeys in his last three holes saw Harrington drop back from being right in contention for this event to four shots back of Mickelson and Verplank. As a player who has struggled over the last five months and who, in his only good (Cadillac Championship) event in that period, also started the final round in the top-10 but shot 73, it is difficult to see how he will be rebound from this back and get back into contention. There are no such concerns over Mahan who already has four top-10 finishes this year and has finishes of 5th, 6th and 11th in the last five years here. [unofficial rd4 system play: Baddeley tb Verplank -110 (L)] |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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