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RESULT: 8-12, -8.52pts after round 2: BACK Rory McIlroy to win 10pts @4.3 (i.e. stake 3.03pts) BACK Jason Day to win 30pts @17 (i.e. stake 1.88pts) position now: Lee Westwood: -24.41 Ian Poulter: -23.76 Dustin Johnson: -23.98 Bubba Watson: -23.83 Aaron Baddeley: -23.76 Rory McIlroy: -10.92 KT Kim: 191.7 David Toms: 92.04 Edoardo Molinari: 91.91 Steve Stricker: 42.32 Jason Day: 23.35 The Field: -8.52 ------------------------------------ LAY Lee Westwood to a liability of 15pts @18 (i.e. stake 0.88pts) LAY Martin Kaymer to a liability of 15pts @27 (i.e. stake 0.58pts) LAY Dustin Johnson to a liability of 15pts @34 (i.e. stake 0.45pts) LAY Rory McIlroy to a liability of 15pts @36 (i.e. stake 0.43pts) LAY Bubba Watson to a liability of 15pts @50 (i.e. stake 0.31pts) LAY Ian Poulter to a liability of 15pts @65 (i.e. stake 0.23pts) LAY Padraig Harrington to a liability of 15pts @65 (i.e. stake 0.23pts) LAY Aaron Baddeley to a liability of 15pts @65 (i.e. stake 0.23pts) For me these players have enough question marks to oppose them at these prices. Asides from Kaymer and Harrington there isn't a major among them despite plenty of chances - do they have the mentality to win a Masters? Does their game suit Augusta? Kaymer has played here 3 times and missed the cut each time. McIlroy's best is 20th and he missed the cut badly last year. Neither have broken 70 in any round. Johnson, Watson and Baddeley in theory have the game to suit Augusta but haven't actually proven it in practise yet - their records here are disappointing - Baddeley's 17th last year his only decent showing in five attempts, while again Johnson and Watson have not broken 70. Finally there are question marks over current form - Westwood, McIlroy, Poulter and Harrington haven't hit too many high notes recently and it's rare for a player to 'find their game' at Augusta. BACK Ben Crane to win 200pts @170 (i.e. stake 1.18pts) BACK Stewart Cink to win 150pts @130 (i.e. stake 1.16pts) BACK Zach Johnson to win 100pts @170 (i.e. stake 0.59pts) BACK David Toms to win 100pts @180 (i.e. stake 0.56pts) BACK Francesco Molinari to win 100pts @120 (i.e. stake 0.84pts) BACK Edoardo Molinari to win 100pts @230 (i.e. stake 0.44pts) BACK Graeme McDowell to win 50pts @55 (i.e. stake 0.93pts) BACK Steve Stricker to win 50pts @60 (i.e. stake 0.85pts) BACK KT Kim to win 200pts @900 (i.e. stake 0.22pts) BACK Hiroyuki Fujita to win 200pts @1000 (i.e. stake 0.2pts) Here I feel there are enough positives to justify a back at the prices. Good, confident putters have always thrived at Augusta and Ben Crane is one of the best putters around. He won his first tour title in Georgia just up the road at Sugarloaf, just like a certain Zach Johnson. There has always been a fairly strong link between form at that now defunct AT&T Classic and at The Masters. His game seems in reasonable shape and after a couple of bad outings on his first visits to Augusta (not unusual) his 24th place last year, including a 68 on Sunday maybe suggests he is getting to grips with the course. Stewart Cink is another who can putt well. He already has a major under his belt and seems to be coming in to some form after some major swing changes prompted by swtiching coach from Butch Harmon to Pat O'Brien over the winter. He has a fairly good record here, his best finish a 3rd place in 2008. Yet more good putters with majors to their names already - not much needs said about Zach Johnson other than why is he such a big price? David Toms has two top 5s in his last three starts on tour, and a 9th and 14th in his last three Masters. The Molinari brothers are probably being overlooked here on the basis that Francesco 'can't putt' and Edoardo has 'bad course form'. Well he wouldn't be the first player to bomb on their first visit or two here and go on to better things (debut Masters performance: Cabrera mc, Immelman 56th, Z Johnson mc, Goosen mc, Woods 41st, Mickelson 46th, Olazabal mc, Faldo 40th, Woosnam mc, Nicklaus mc...). After winning the US Amatuer in 2005 Edoardo has gone on to prove in the professional game that when the pressure is on he responds and when he gets a winning chance more often than not he takes it. Francesco's putting is of course a worry, but he's usually up there week after week even when he's putting badly. On the occasions he putts a bit better he can win against the the very best of fields as he showed with his WGC title in China at the end of last season. If these two were British and had the hype machine behind them, with the achievements they've made over the past couple of seasons they would be at half these prices this week. There really isn't much to separate Graeme McDowell and Martin Kaymer's performances over the last year. Both got their first majors amongst other impressive wins - The European Tour bigwigs couldn't split them so they shared the player of the year award. While both have spoken about having to change their games to play here McDowell at least already has one decent performance (17th in 2009) to build on. Yet he is more than twice Kaymer's price. Something doesn't seem right there. With Monty now in the commentary box, Steve Stricker has surely taken over his mantle as the best player out there to not have won a major. He's in good form, he's performed reasonably well here in the past and he might just get over the line one of these times. Shingo Katyama's 4th place in 2009 proved that Japanese Tour players can compete in this event. Or at least it should have done, with these prices you wouldn't think it. Kyung-Tae Kim has been overshadowed somewhat by fellow Korean prodigy Seung-Yul Noh and Japanese sensation Ryo Ishikawa. He's higher than both in the world rankings though. And while the press looks for the 'good news story' from Ishikawa perhaps it will be the old stager Hiroyuki Fujita who provides it. He has been dubbed the Japanese Kenny Perry or Vijay Singh (both of whom have featured here!) and he's here on merit - (top 50 in world rankings at end of 2010). |
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