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Spread Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Andy

Odds:Spreads

 
 
The Masters
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This week, apart from the usual R1 2 ball advices, we will also have 2 balls in R2 and possibly after the cut. There will also be an outright bet, as per the first bet below.

Buy the following players on the Hotshots market at 25.5 for 0.25 Pts using the "My Hotshots" facility at
Sporting Index

Bubba Watson, Ryan Moore, Matt Kuchar, Graeme McDowell M/U 0, Loss 6.37 Pts

Watson is my outright fancy. The Masters has a quirk for producing left handed players doing better here than in other majors (Mickelson, Weir) and Watson has the stats, a win under his belt, and the distance to contend this week. Whether he gets over the line remains to be seen as he has buckled occasionally on a Sunday afternoon but 2nd pays the same as 10th in this bet. Kuchar is a far better player and is far more likely to contend than his odds, and subsequently his allocation of points here, implies. The money list winner in 2010 has a 83% top 10 record this year and the week he fell short he was 17th. Moore was a tip on these pages last year but fell just short from giving us a return (14th). He did though, finish top of the putting stats and he obviously likes the course. Finally, McDowell has been ignored recently due to a R1 80 start at Bay Hill but his results over the last 6 months have been a continuation of the excellent golf that won him the US Open last year. Like Kuchar his outright price is wrong and his allocation here is equally wrong.

Each player finishing top 10 gets 25 pts and the winner a 25 pt bonus.

R1 18H Match Bets

0.25 Pt. Stakes @ Spreadex

Sell Martin Laird over Bo Van Pelt at 3, M/U -13, Profit 2.5 Pts
H2H's sees Van Pelt lead 10-7 over the last year and with Van Pelt at least having played here once, it suggests that Spreadex are putting too much faith in the fact Laird won 2 weeks ago.

Sell Tiger Woods over Robert Allenby at 6, M/U 22, Loss 4 Pts

For all of his issues on the course, Woods is still more likely than not to finish high up the leaderboard this week but he still throws in a high score in at least one round. Allenby meanwhile has very little form here but did finish top 10 last week and it is that result that makes me believe that Spreadex are just a little too high with this price given the fact Woods has no current form at all.

Sell Phil Mickelson over Peter Uihlein at 15, M/U 16, Loss 0.25 Pts
Mickelson is the clear and justifiable Masters favourite but this price does not quite reflect the ability that the young amateur champion has. He is as low as 11/10 in the Top Amateur player and 15-18 is a fair price on day 1.

0.25 Pts Stake (unless stated) at
Sporting Index

Sell Kevin Streelman over Nate Smith at 8 (0.5 Pts), M/U 0, Profit 4 Pts
Smith, another debutant, was 36th last week at Houston and that finish alone dicates that 8-11 may be too high a price against Streelman who is little more than a journeyman tour player. Smith has played 8 PGA events this year, making 4 cuts, whilst Streelman has played the same number, making 5. This is arguably the best bet of those on offer.

Sell Ian Poulter over David Toms at 2, M/U -16, Profit 4.5 Pts
Toms came back to a bit of form in the Bay Hill event recently finishing 3rd and is arguably in better form than Poulter even although Poulter is obviously a better player. Toms has three top 10's here and was 14th last year when in poorer form so he may be ideally suited to this course set up.

Sell Alvaro Quiros over Jhonattan Vegas at 3 (0.5 Pts), M/U 31, Loss 14 Pts
This is just behind the Streelman sell in terms of the best bets available. Quiros has played here twice, with three 75's and a 78. He faces a debutant who has taken to the tour like a duck to water. Admittedly of course the fact he hasn't played here is a huge negative but then he may not need to shoot anywhere near par to win this match.

R1 - 3-3-0 (-7.25 Pts)

R2 18H Match Bets

0.5 Pt. Stakes @ Spreadex

Sell Alvaro Quiros over Jhonattan Vegas at 3 (0.5 Pts), M/U 19, Loss 8 Pts
No
reason not to take this on again today, especially as the course will be tougher.

Sell Rory McIlroy over Jason Day at 5 (0.5 Pts), M/U -25, Profit 15 Pts
McIlroy was superb yesterday but he has produced rounds like this in the past only to follow it up with a poor round and Day wasn't too bad yesterday even although he lost this match by 7.

Sell Kevin Streelman over Nate Smith at 7 (0.5 Pts), M/U 19, Loss 6 Pts
These players tied yesterday and there was nothing in the stats to suggest that Smith got lucky, reasons posted above apply again today at 1pt less.

0.25 Pts Stakes at Sporting Index

Sell Ryan Palmer over Gregory Havret at 3, M/U 34, Loss 7.75 Pts
Havret played well yesterday and it is a continuation of US major form after a 2nd in last year's US Open. He won this match by 1 and 3 seems a touch high today.

Sell Ian Poulter over David Toms at 2, M/U 0, Profit 0.5 Pts
Toms won by two yesterday justifying the pick and you would expect the price to be nearer 0-3 so the fact that the same 2pt start can be taken means we should go in again.

2-3-0 -6.25 Pts

-19.87

 

5-7-0