1-2; -3.58pts (system plays: 3-0-0) Round 1 play (2pts): Tom Lehman to beat Aaron Baddeley +163 @ Bet365 [also available @ Extrabet] WON by 4 Worth a punt at these odds. Baddeley is worth opposing as a winner last week and has never previously played in this event; Lehman is worth backing given his form on the Champions Tour - 2nd and 1st in his two starts this year, plus he has played in this event previously: he finished 49th two years ago. But it is not just form and the post-win-letdown angles that point to this play. Lehman and Baddeley have played in seven common PGA Tours events since the start of last year: Baddeley has never shot the lower first round score in any of those events in the last 14 months. Every time, Lehman shot the lower 1st round score apart the Phoenix Open three weeks ago when they both shot 65. Baddeley may be a more likely winner of the event, but Lehman is the better player to back in match bets regardless of these odds. Round 2 play (4pts): Garrett Willis to beat Cameron Percy -120 @ 5Dimes LOST by 10 Opposing Percy who lost his Tour Card last year and has been struggling to get into events. He only got into the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am two weeks ago (his only PGA Tour start this year) because Tim Clark withdrew through injury. He missed the cut by 10 shots that week and that only puts even more pressure on him today as got off to a good start yesterday and is currently in 11th position. Willis is also in that position, but at least he has made the cut previously on this course and has been playing regular Tour golf, which includes a top-30 finish in the Farmers Insurance Open. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Kelly tb Toms -105 (W); Pernice tb Willis +100 (W)] No round 3 plays. Round 4 play (2pts): Cameron Beckman to beat Briny Baird -102 @ Extrabet LOST by 2 Two players with very good histories in this event - Beckman is the defending champion and both players have finished in the top-15 in three of the four years of this event - so it is no great surprise to see them both in 6th place on the leaderboard. But the pressure is really on Baird and not Beckman. He lost his Tour Card by finishing outside the top-125 on the Money List last year, so he can only get into a small number of events and, if he is to avoid Q-School again, he needs to make the most of these opportunities. Beckman already has three top-25 finishes this year, so comes into the event in much more confidence and form. Plus, it was from this position - three shots off the lead - that he won this event last year (as well as the 2008 Frys.com Open). [unofficial rd4 system play: Wagner tb Gates -111 (W)] |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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