|
1-2; -5.10pts (system plays: 6-2-2) Round 1 play (2pts): Matt Kuchar to beat Webb Simpson -105 @ Bet365 [available generally] LOST by 7
Opposing Simpson in these end-of-season events as he tries to close in on the Money List title. He trails Luke Donald by less than $70,000, but he had been ahead before the Tour Championship and the pressure on him that week was apparent as he let slip his control of the $10 million prize. Admittedly, he did play well here, but his interviews have been dominated by the contest for the Arnold Palmer Trophy and that will dominate his game this week. Kuch should just need to maintain his steady record of accumulating top-25 finishes to prevail in this matchup. [unofficial rd1 system plays: Toms tb Fowler +120 (W); Van Pelt tb Snedeker -105 (W)] Round 2 play (4pts): David Hearn to beat Billy Horschel -125 @ 5Dimes LOST by 7
Backing Hearn to continue his good form - in his last three starts, he has finished 6th, 5th and 7th. That form has seen him secure his Tour Card for next season as he currently lies in 102nd place in the Money List with just one more week to go after this event. The situation is not so good for Horschel who lies 139th and he needs a big week this week - if he maintains his current 3rd place he would only rise to 116th so he cannot afford one indifferent round. With that pressure on him, Hearn is the more likely to continue the good form. [unofficial rd2 system play: Cabrera tb Stenson -111 (T)] Round 3 play (2pts): Paul Stankowski to beat Matt McQuillan -110 @ 5Dimes TIED Round 4 play (2pts): Webb Simpson to beat Trevor Immelman -145 @ The Greek [available generally] WON by 3
Simpson has impressed this week and while he is only two shots off the lead, a maintenance of his current 3rd place position will be a huge step towards winning the Money title next week, so I don't see him being overly aggressive today. However, the play is largely against Immelman. He also starts the day in 3rd place, but this is a rare occurence: he has started the final round in top-5 just once in the last 2 1/2 years. Admittedly, he has struggled with injury in previous seasons, but Simpson has still finished ahead of him in 19 of their last 22 common events and while his new Callaway driver has seen him hit a lot more fairways this week, he still ranks 66th of 70 in greens in regulation. The great end to his round yesterday excepted - six-under-par over five holes - he has not been playing well enough to maintain a top-3 position. [unofficial rd4 system plays: Furyk tb Weekley -170 (W); Hearn tb Herman -150 (W); Molder tb Glover -120 (T); Streelman tb Cabrera -120 (L); Furyk tb Snedeker -111 (W); Streelman tb Blanks -120 (W)] |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
|
