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18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

 

Odds: 3-Balls

Memorial Tournament
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2-0; +6.00pts  (system plays: 6-8-3) 

Round 1 play (2pts):

Bill Haas to beat Nick Watney +125 @ Paddy Power  VOID (Watney dns)
Both in comparable form - two top-10 finishes in their last three starts - and both with comparable histories in this event, though Haas did beat Watney by 13 shots over two rounds last year. With Haas looking as though his early season has returned, he could certainly be a challenger for this event. Watney may have finished 8th last week, but he appeared to be downbeat about his game and maybe there will be a carryover effect on the games of those players who played in the very difficult conditions last week.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Levin tb Singh +100 (L); Perry tb Immelman +130 (L); Overton tb Glover -105 (L); Els tb Baddeley +130 (T)]

 

Round 2 play (4pts):

Ryan Moore to beat Matt Bettencourt -125 @ Stan James  WON by 2
Easy to oppose Bettencourt in this situation. This will be the fifth time that he has ended day one in the top-10 on the PGA Tour this year alone, but on not one of those occasions this year has he remained in the top-10 after the day two. In the last two occasions, he has finished 59th and 64th and those have been two of the three cuts that he has made in his last nine starts. He clearly needs a fast start to simply make the cut this year, so can be opposed in the second round. That will not be a problem with Moore whose only missed cut since October last year was in the Bob Hope event when he had to withdraw with flu; his record of three top-10 finishes in the last four years suggests that may well consolidate his current 14th place position.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Molder tb Stallings -145 (W); Barnes tb O'Hern -135 (W)]

 

Round 3 play (2pts):*

Bryce Molder to beat Edoardo Molinari +120 @ Paddy Power [available generally]  TIED
Yesterday's 73 was the first time that Molder has shot a worse round at Muifield Village than previously. His seven previous scores on this course had been 77-74-74-71-71-68-68 ... it would have become difficult to continue that series. Molder has been missing a lot of cuts this year and playing poorly in the final round when he does make the cut, but curiously he does round 3rd on Tour in 3rd round scoring average with no round above 70 this year. Hopefully, his increasing confidence on this course, the form that he displayed in the first round and he previous 3rd round successes should give him the belief that he can get back into the top-5 in this event. Worth a punt at these odds with the tie void.

[unofficial rd3 system play: Byrd tb Baddeley -110 (W)]

 

Round 4 play (2pts):

Luke Donald to beat Charl Schwartzel -141 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek, Carib and WSEX]  WON by 3
Donald fell from 6th to 17th place yesterday after his 73 and he is now in danger of ending his run of eight consecutive top-10 finishes. I fully expect the World #1 to respond and get back under that number. He may be too far back from the lead (eight shots), but if Stricker has a bad day, he is still only five shots off second place. Donald has become #1 for his consistency and that shouldn't falter today and this should be the ninth time in the last ten common events that Donald has finished ahead of the Msaters champion (the only time he beat Donald, who finished 4th).

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Donald tb Johnson -120 (L); Mahan tb Woodland -150 (L); Mahan tb Johnson -119 (L); Mahan tb McIlroy +100 (L); Simpson tb Stallings -139 (W); Donald tb Mickelson -125 (L); Simpson tb Woodland -111 (T); Kuchar tb Jobe -161 (T); Stricker tb Byrd -115 (W); Streelman tb Davis -130 (W)]

NOTES

There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball' matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.

Note that '2pts' represents 'to win 2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents '2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).