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0-1; -4.00pts (system plays: 4-6-3) Round 1 play (2pts): Paul Casey to beat Robert Karlsson +120 @ Paddy Power TIED
No doubts about Casey's form at all. Not only did his win in the Volvo Golf Champions mean that he had finished in the top-6 in six of last seven starts (and in the top-25 in each of his last eleven starts), but he won three events that week - the main event, plus both the pro-ams that week as well! No wonder that he missed the cut the following week. He finished 22nd in his last start here three years ago and shouldn't be too far from that mark this year. For Karlsson, it is more of an unknown. At 41 and 15th in the World Rankings (Casey is 6th), he is an unlikely rookie on the PGA Tour and while he played well in two events in the Middle East, life on the PGA Tour may take a little time to get used to. He will do well this year, but maybe not on his first day on Tour. Round 2 play (4pts): Bill Haas to beat J.B. Holmes +100 @ 5Dimes LOST by 5
With finishes of 8th, 2nd (playoff loss), 9th and 29th in his four starts this year - or with positions of 4th, 6th, 1st and 3rd after the penultimate round of those four events - it should be no surprise to see Haas both leading this event after the 1st round and leading the field in greens in regulation. He does share the top of the leaderboard with a number of players, including Holmes, but he has shown this year that he does remain right in contention until the last round. Take the last time that he held the 1st round lead as an example - the Viking Classic last October - he then shot 65 in the 2nd round and ended up as a wire-to-wire winner. Holmes is much less consistent and both the previous occasions that he has held the lead after the 1st round came last year: in the Arnold Palmer Invitational he then shot 73 to drop to 8th; in the Players Championship he then shot 71 to drop to 18th. Haas at plus-odds is great value. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Haas B tb Rose -105 (L); Singh tb Baddeley -140 (L); Ogilvy tb Oosthuizen -110 (L); Kuchar tb Wilson M -138 (T); Singh tb Yang -150 (W); Dufner tb Davis +105 (W); Wi tb Romero -105 (L)] No round 3 plays. Round 4 play (2pts): Vijay Singh to beat Ryan Moore -139 @ Bet365 [also available @ Extrabet] TIED
Expecting a good final round performance from Vijay. He currently sits in the top-5, two shots off the lead, and from this position he is one of the most consistent performers on the Tour: in the 103 times since 1996 that he has started in the final round in the top-5, he has remained in the top-5 on 72% of those occasions; in his last 13 occasions in this position (dating back to mid-2007), his worst finish has been 6th and he has won four times. He comes into the event in renewed form - 20th, 3rd and 26th in the last three weeks - and his short game has been extremely good this week. Moore, by contrast, has been in poor form - wd (flu) and 73rd in his two starts this year - and has never previously done well in this event. [unofficial rd4 system plays: Singh tb Allenby -150 (L); Singh tb Senden -143 (W); Singh tb Couples -125 (W); Rose tb Allenby -120 (L); Holmes tb Taylor -150 (T); Singh tb Baddeley -125 (T)] |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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