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R1 18H MB's (0.25 Pts Stakes unless stated) at Sporting Index

Sell Dustin Johnson over D.A. Points @ 6 M/U 13, Loss 1.75 Pts
Sell Steve Stricker over D.A. Points @ 7 M/U 13, Loss 1.5 Pts
Minimum stakes on this one, getting with last weeks winner against two far superior players, but at a price that does not do Points's ability justice. H2H's with Johnson sees a 7-6 deficit over 12 months with the last two events going in the underdogs favour. With Stricker, the H2H stats aren't as good but current form is sparse for Stricker in that he has only played once since Hawaii and that was in Qatar. He may need a round to get going and of course we are only interested in the first 18 holes. The two bets also tie in with my, as yet unproven, theory that last week winners are still on a high in R1 and it is the weekend before the mental brick wall is hit.

Sell Rickie Fowler over Corey Pavin at 9 M/U -25, Profit 8.5 Pts
Sell Rickie Fowler over Jeff Overton at 3 M/U -13, Profit 4 Pts
Opposing Fowler will continue to prove profitable long term until he reaches the level of result that his pre event price suggests he should be achieving. He has two Top 20's so far this year so it is not as if he is failing, he just isn't the top player his prices suggest he should be. H2H's with Pavin show a 4-1 deficit last year which of course isn't a true reflection of their respective abilities but it does put a question mark over a 9-12 quote. With Overton, Fowler leads 11-6 in a far more comprehesive results sample, but note that Overton won 10 of the R1 matches, so 3-6 is a touch high.

Sell Charles Howell over Zack Miller at 6 (0.5 Pts) M/U 22, Loss 8 Pts
Howell has great form here and is a past winner, but that form has dried up and 55, 59 and a MC are his three most recent course results. He is paired with Miller who played late out last Sunday night with Mickelson and Mahan but he failed to keep the pace but will have learned from the experience. He eventually finished 9th and that is his 3rd Top 30 in a row since missing the cut on his first start at the Sony. It's an impressive start from the Nationwide graduate and he could be anything.

2-3-0 +1.25Pts