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R1 18H 10-3's Stake 0.5 Pts and at Sporting Index unless otherwise stated.


Sell Richard Green over Hiroyuki Fujita at 6 M/U -28, Profit 17 Pts
It has been 19 events since Green last finished inside the Top 30 on US soil and although he should be favourite against his Japanese opponent, 6 is far too big. Fujita was 10th in the Honda this year which is a sparse good week amongst many poor but the gap in quality is not as much as 6-9 would imply.

Sell Anders Hansen over Johnson Wagner at 3 M/U 19, Loss 8 Pts
Hansen has not seen Saturday in 11 of his last 12 US starts where a Friday cut line was in place. Wagner was 11th two weeks ago in the Greenbrier classic and was a winner in the Mexican event that runs concurrently with the Matchplay in February. On US soil Wagner is arguably the equal of Hansen if not a slight favourite.

Buy Justin Rose over Louis Oosthuizen at 4 (0.25 Pts) M/U 25, Profit 5.25 Pts
Oosthuizen has a 2011 US/Euro record of 3 Top 20s in 14 starts which shows his Open win in 2010 still looks like a blip as opposed to a sign of an upward career path. Rose flatters most weeks at the business end but in 2011 he has 7 Top 20s and arguably could be higher than 1-4 favourite as we are only interested in his R1 score.

Sell Simon Dyson over Bryce Molder at 2 M/U 28, Loss 13 Pts
Dyson has had two excellent PGA championships, albeit on different courses and that may be reflected in this price, because bar this he has done little on this tour or on US based WGC events. Molder has three Top 10's in his last five starts and on home soil he also should possibly be a slight favourite.

2-2-0 +1.25 Pts
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R2 18H 10-3's Stake 0.5 Pts and at Sporting Index unless otherwise stated.

Sell Anders Hansen over Johnson Wagner at 4 (0.25 Pts) M/U 0, Profit 1 Pt
Sell Anders Hansen over Rory Sabbatini at 2 (0.25 Pts) M/U 0, Profit 0.5 Pts
Hansen had a good day yesterday but still feel that his record in the US dictates that his price is too high over both Wagner, who he beat by 3 yesterday, and Sabbatini who was 5 behind. 

Sell Mark Wilson over Tom Gillis at 6 M/U 13, Loss 3.5 Pts
A 7 shot win for Wilson yesterday, hence a price of 6-9 when yesterday it was 3-6 but the H2H record of these players suggests we should ignore yesterday a little more than the compilers are. Gillis has a very poor post cut record compared to Wilson but in earlier rounds there doesn't seem too much between them.

Sell Sean O'Hair over Cameron Tringale at 3 M/U -13, Profit 8 Pts
A 5 shot win for O'Hair yesterday but their records are very similar over the last few months, the one blip being in R2 where O'Hair has only won 3 out of 15. This may be a statistical blip but looking purely at O'Hair's scores he has only broken 70 twice in those events examined that both played in.  

Sell Alexander Noren over J.J. Henry at 2 M/U 13, Loss 5.5 Pts
Another bet on a player who lost yesterday but that is the norm for betting during R2. Noren won by 4 but his scoring in the few times that he has played in the US is poor and Henry has been steady throughout the summer making every cut bar one since late May.

4-4-0 +1.75 Pts