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18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

 

Odds: 3-Balls

AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am
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2-1; -2.00pts  (system plays: 4-3-1)

No round 1 plays.

 

Round 2 play (4pts):

Vijay Singh to beat David Duval -150 @ Stan James [available generally]  LOST by 3
It would be good to turn the clock back 12 months and watch Duval come so close to winning this event, but he will not do that this year after an opening 77 around Pebble Beach sees him 5 shots off the cut line and in 142nd place. He has made the cut just once in the last eight years from outside the top-100 after round 1 and in the five times that he was in that position last year, he averaged 74.80. Singh comes into this event with finishes of 20th and 3rd in the last two weeks and has a great record in this event. He will still be playing on Sunday and will still be motivated by the end of this round.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Appleby tb Janzen -138 (W); Mahan tb Van Pelt -117 (W); Mulroy tb Smith -110 (L)]

 

Round 3 play (2pts):

Paul Stankowski to beat Trevor Immelman -103 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek, Carib and WSEX]  WON by 2
Opposing Immelman who has struggled since his wrist surgery in 2009 - the doctors said it would take 18 months to heal and it appears to certainly taken that long, so his continued poor form may not be purely for physical reasons. He has played better this week and currently stands in 24th place, but he has missed his last five cuts so there are no guarantees that his form will continue for another round. Despite his 68, he struggled to find either the fairways or the greens around Spyglass Hill yesterday. Stankowski is a long-time regular in this event who is coming off a top-30 finish; he looks the more likely to shoot a good round at Pebble Beach today.

 

Round 4 play (2pts):

D.A. Points to beat Tom Gillis -120 @ Paddy Power  WON by 3
An unfamiliar position for Gillis. The last (and only) time that Gillis started the final round of a PGA Tour event was back in 2003 - he shot 70 and dropped to 7th. Not so for Points who has been in this top-5 position three times in the last couple of seasons - he always broke par in the final round from this position and averaged less than 69. Coming into this event in good form - he has finished 18th and 5th in the last two weeks - Points could certainly remain in the top-5 as he has done all week so far.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Points tb Molder -118 (W); Points tb Marino +110 (W); Sutherland tb Gillis +105 (L); Levin tb Gillis +105 (T); Sutherland tb Levin -111 (L)]

NOTES

There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball' matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.

Note that '2pts' represents 'to win 2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents '2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).