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3-1; +6.40pts (system plays: 10-4-2) Round 1 play (2pts): David Toms to beat Webb Simpson -105 @ Bet365 WON by 4
Both players in very similar form - the have finished in the top-25 in each of their last four events - but they differ greatly in how well they have played Sawgrass previously. Toms is a regular here and, while he has never really looked like winning here, he did have a top-10 finish only two years ago. Simpson has played here twice, missed the cut both times and averages 74.50 around this course. This is a place where course form is very important, so their comparability in current form can be ignored this week. [unofficial rd1 system plays: Garcia tb Scott +107 (W); Toms tb Day -103 (W); Perez tb Simpson +105 (L)] Round 2 play (4pts): Kevin Streelmen to beat Paul Goydos -110 @  Paddy Power WON by 1
Opposing Goydos who surprisingly lies in 14th place after the opening round ... and he would have been higher but for a bogey on the last hole. Only three times in the last 12 months has he started the 2nd round in the top-15 (none have been in the last six months): his season-defining opening round of 59 in the John Deere Classic was followed by 68 and a drop to 2nd place; he followed his opening 66 in the Greenbrier Classic with 73 to miss the cut; he followed his opening 65 with 73 to drop 24 places in the Frys.com Open. His two good events this year (finishes of 9th and 21st) have been events in which he has improved his leaderboard position with every round, so I don't see him holding onto this lofty position, particularly in such an event. It is certainly rare for players that would be on the Champions Tour in three years' time. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Davis tb Yang -105 (W); Cink tb Streele -160 (T); Dufner tb Teater -140 (W); Leonard tb Stenson -138 (W); Love tb Stenson -138 (W); Donald tb Watney -125 (W); Stricker tb Schwartzel -133 (W); Holmes tb Quiros -120 (W); Cink tb Moore -120 (L); Cink tb Romero -120 (L)] Round 3 play (2pts): Lucas Glover to beat Graeme McDowell +105 @ Bet365 LOST by 6
Opposing McDowell who admitted in interview that he "came in here with no expectations". He has been working hard with his coach to turn around a major loss of form, and it is clearly having some success, but Sawgrass can easily unravel swinges that are not totally engrained. McDowell has missed the cut here in the last two years, so this also points to a struggle to maintain his current 3rd place position. That shouldn't be the case with Glover who was 3rd here last year and comes off a win in last week's Wells Fargo Championship. [unofficial rd3 system plays: Marino tb Romero -107 (T); Hoffman tb Manassero -105 (W); Goosen tb Romero -111 (L)] Round 4 play (2pts): K.J Choi to beat Graeme McDowell +120 @ SkyBet WON by 9 |
