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18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

 

Odds: 3-Balls

Presidents Cup
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4-0; +8.50pts  (system plays: 4-1-0) 

Day 1 play (2pts):

Phil Mickelson & Jim Furyk to beat Retief Goosen & Robert Allenby -107 @ Pinnacle [available generally]  WON 4&3
Unlike the Ryder Cup, you can't hide out-of-form players in this event and that applies to Goosen and Allenby. Goosen's last top-10 was in June; Allenby's last top-10 was just one week later; they have both recorded just two top-10 finishes in their last 23 starts. Those struggles with their games will be exposed in the foursomes format and this is not a format in which either player has excelled: Goosen has 2-6-2 record in foursomes; Allenby has a 3-5-2 record in foursomes (both Mickelson and Furyk have winning records in this format).

 

Day 2 play (2pts):

Steve Stricker & Matt Kuchar to beat Y.E. Yang & Robert Allenby +115 @ Bet365  WON 4&3
Not a point between these players today: Stricker, Yang and Allenby all lost heavily in the foursomes, while Kuchar won the last two holes with Dustin Johnson to salvage a halve against Jason Day and Aaron Baddeley. But now that the Tiger Woods-Steve Williams circus is out of the way, I'd expect Stricker to play much better tomorrow. Neither of Yang or Allenby have winning records in fourball matches and with concerns over Allenby's form, I certainly make the American pairing stronger favourites in this match.

 

Day 3 foursomes play (2pts):

Webb Simpson & Bubba Watson to beat Geoff Ogilvy & Robert Allenby +110 available generally  WON 3&2
Opposing Allenby yet again - he has lost both of his matches heavily so far and will be under a lot of pressure in the lead-off group, playing in Melbourne  and paired with fellow Melbourne native, Ogilvy. Simpson and Watson haven't been taken to the final hole in either of their matches so far and will be in the lead-off group for a third time - they've been very impressive so far and I see no reason why that won't continue.

 

Day 4 singles play (2pts):

Charl Schwartzel to beat Dustin Johnson -110 @ BlueSq and Coral  WON 2&1
Opposing Johnson who has been poor this week. In the sole match that he won - a foursomes match with Tiger Woods - the International team rather lost the match than the Americans won it: of the five holes that they won, one was conceded while the Internationals gave three others away with two bogeys and a double bogey. This matches Johnson's performance in the Ryder Cup when he won just one point all week. Schwartzel has been much more consistent, losing just one of his matches so far and is a much stronger favourites in some books.

[unofficial singles system plays: Stricker tb Yang -115 (W); Woods tb Baddeley -143 (W); Mahan tb Day +110 (W); Ogilvy tb Haas -125 (W); Kuchar tb Goosen -130 (L)]

 

NOTES

There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball' matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.

Note that '2pts' represents 'to win 2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents '2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).