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2-2; +1.05pts (system plays: 5-2-1) Round 1 play (2pts): Jerry Kelly to beat Fredrik Jacobson -110 @ 5Dimes LOST by 1
Straightforward play on Kelly in this matchup. He is in the better form - not only did he finish 3rd last week in the Honda Classic, but he has finished behind Jacobson just once in five common events this year - and whereas Jacobson is making his course debut, Kelly has finished 2nd and 9th in his two previous visits to the Trump International GC. Round 2 play (4pts): Stephen Ames to beat Henrik Stenson -110 @ Stan James [also available @ Extrabet] WON by 1
Opposing Stenson tends to be profitable at the moment. He has struggled since committing himself to Full Membership of the PGA Tour last year (though he was affected for a virus for a couples of months), recording just three top-20 finishes over the last year (25 events). He now lies in 110th place after the 1st round and does not appear to be showing any form to be able to turn this around and make the cut. Ames hasn't looked close to adding to his last Tour win in 2009, but he has been making cuts consistently and currently lies in 20th place and is striking the ball well - he is ranked 4th in greens in regulation so far. I can't see him playing badly today and gifting this match to an out-of-form Stenson. [unofficial rd2 system plays: MacKenzie tb Lovemark -115 (L); Cink tb Cabrera A -125 (W); Ames tb Prugh -145 (W); Matteson tb Piercy -120 (W)] Round 3 play (2pts): Henrik Stenson to beat Lee Janzen -105 @ 5Dimes WON by 6
Got it wrong on Stenson yesterday as he shot 67 to make the cut with ease, so it was just as well that Ames did play as well as expected. So I'm backing the Swede to continue the form that he showed yesterday. There is no doubting his ability, but illness and confidence have been an issue for a year and his response to yesterday's will show how much his confidence has returned. If it has, he should easily beat a player who will shortly be eligible for the Champions Tour, has missed three cuts out of four this season and ranks almost 350 places below him in the World Rankings. [unofficial rd3 system plays: Flesch tb Thompson -105 (W); Merrick tb Haas +105 (L)] Round 4 play (2pts): Brendon De Jonge to beat Michael Bradley -138 @ Stan James and BetFred [available generally] LOST by 5
Bradley clearly likes this course - he has finished 1st and 15th in the last two years here - and is currently in 3rd place, but his form has otherwise been very poor heading into this event: he has missed his last four cuts. De Jonge alrady has four top-30 finishes this year and also like this course: he finished 3rd last year and currently lies 4th. He certainly seems the more-likely player to challenge Troy Matteson for the lead today. [unofficial rd4 system plays: Jobe tb Tidland -135 (T); DiMarco tb Thompson -110 (W)]
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