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2-2; +1.90pts (system plays: 9-2-1) Round 1 play (2pts): Bob Estes to beat Scott Piercy -105 @ 5Dimes LOST by 3
I can't see Estes suffering from his playoff loss at the weekend. He came from nowhere with 65-64 over the last two rounds and had to hang around for over an hour to wait and see if someone could better his clubhouse score. Having been out of the winners circle since 2002 and having finished outside the top-125 on the Money List last year (and so facing limited starts this year), he can only see last week's drama as a bonus so I expect him to maintain his form this week. He has made the cut in all three previous visits to Montreux and finished 2nd in 2006 so he can certainly defeat Piercy who has never finished inside the top-50 in his three previous attempts at Montreux. [unofficial rd1 system plays: Leishman tb Leonard -110 (L); DiMarco tb Reavie +105 (W); DiMarco tb Perez +100 (W)] Round 2 play (4pts): Troy Matteson to beat Dean Wilson -120 @ Bet365 WON by 3
Matteson continued his recent good form in yesterday's round to finish the day in 18th place - he has missed the cut just once in his last seven starts and finished in the top-30 in four of those seven starts. Wilson's good first round is more of a surprise - he has missed the cut in each of the last two weeks and has just one top-30 finish in his last seven starts. He has also missed the cut in each of the last two years here (Matteson has finished 18th and 42nd in his two previous visits), so Matteson deserves favourtism in this matchup. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Taylor tb Flesch -140 (W); Garrigus tb Pampling -145 (T); Garrigus tb Baird -150 (W)] Round 3 play (2pts): Michael Letzig to beat Steve Elkington +110 @ 5Dimes LOST by 2
Opposing Elkington, particularly after he shot a lower score than anyone yesterday. He does have a good record at Montreux, but in the last 12 months he has played like someone who will be eligible for the Champions Tour next year. In his last 15 starts, he has missed the cut 11 times and has a high finish of 33rd, so when he shot 65 yesterday to jump from 64th to 6th, it was a major surprise. It will be another major surprise if he stays there. [unofficial rd3 system play: Leonard tb Adams +105 (W)] Round 4 play (2pts): Robert Garrigus to beat Vaughn Taylor -125 @ Stan James WON by 2
It looks as though Taylor might match his wins in this event in 2004 and 2005 when he led after 36 holes this week, but a double-bogey on the first hole yesterday showed just how long it has been since he won on Tour. It should be difficult for him to bounce-back from that round, particularly as he ranks 161st in Final Round Scoring Average. Garrigus also has good form on this course and in the more recent past - he has finished in the top-10 in each of the last two years - and whereas Taylor has missed the cut in each of his last three starts, Garrigus has two top-20 finishes in his last three, including 3rd in the U.S. Open. Garrigus has finished ahead of Taylor in all of their common events over the last three months and I don't see why that won't continue this week. [unofficial rd4 system plays: Adams tb Riley -115 (W); Baird tb Riley -125 (L); Perez tb Taylor +105 (W); Davis tb Merrick -111 (W); Adams tb Teater -120 (W)] |
