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3-0; +8.42pts (system plays: 3-2-1) Round 1 play (2pts): Rory Sabbatini to beat Bo Van Pelt +120 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Paddy Power] WON by 1
This price appears to be based on their form towards the end of last season when BVP finished the season in great form. But that was three months ago! Van Pelt didn't play in any of the off-season events and his record at Waialae hardly suggests that he will rediscover that previous form - he has missed his last three cuts here. By contrast, Sabbatini finished 5th in the Shark Shootout just before Christmas and is famed for taking his family to Hawaii for several weeks just before the season starts. They return to the place of their wedding, but Sabbatini hardly misses a day from the golf course. This is presumably why he always plays so well in Hawaii - twice a runner-up in the Tournament of Champions (2001 and 2010) and twice a runner-up in this event (2006 and 2008). In other years, he has also come close to taking this title - he was 7th after 54 holes last year, 12th in 2009, and so on. He attibutes his good play in Hawaii to his ability to play in wind and that is something that Van Pelt struggles with. As such, I'm surprised to see Sabbatini as such a large dog in this matchup. Round 2 play (4pts): Shigeki Maruyama to beat Ben Martin -120 @ 5Dimes WON by 8
An impressive debut by Martin to finish the 1st round in 2nd place, but I can't see the Clemson graduate remaining in contention all week. He has four previous starts on the main pro Tours and missed the cut every time and had been forced to eanr his living as a pro on the mini-Tours. Maruyama is a regular in this event with three top-10s and six top-25 finishes and had shown good form in Asia at the end of last season, so his current 2nd place position is far from a surprise. Surely, he is much more likely to remain in contention over the weekend. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Kuchar tb Palmer -138 (W); Wilson M tb Love +105 (L); Leishman tb Wi +100 (L); Kuchar tb Clark -163 (T); Marino tb Jones M -125 (W)] Round 3 play (2pts): Davis Love to beat Chad Campbell +101 @ Pinnacle [available generally] WON by 1
No surprise to see these two players in 12th place as they both have very good course histories - Love has four top-10 finishes in seven starts here; Campbell has three in eight starts. However, they are expected to move in opposite directions in the 3rd round. Campbell ranked 134th in 3rd round scoring average last year and managed to shoot the lower 3rd round score than Love just once in the whole of 2010. In fact, his 'moving day' scoring average is even worse when in contention - Campbell started the 3rd round in the top-20 on five occasions last year, failing to shoot better than 71 on any of those five occasions. By contrast, Love started the 3rd round in the top-20 on six occasions last year, shooting sub-70 in four of those six occasions and the only time that he failed to break par was when he started the 3rd round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational with the pressure of leading the event. [unofficial rd3 system play: Bettencourt tb DiMarco -105 (W)] |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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