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3-1; +6.00pts (system plays: 9-3-0) Round 1 play (2pts): Robert Garrigus to beat Chris Couch -105 @ 5Dimes WON by 1
Two players that have very different histories on the zoysia grass at Southwind: Couch has played here only three times, spread over 12 years, and has never broken 70 nor made the cut; Garrigus has also played here three times (over the last five years), has made the cut every time and lost out only in a playoff last year (he had also been 8th at the cut in 2006). This is a course that clearly fits his eye more than Couch. With Garrigus having made the cut in each of his last seven starts, including two top-20s over the last month, he looks set to be a contender around here again. [unofficial rd1 system plays: Willis tb DeLaet -120 (W); Austin tb Pernice -110 (L); Imada tb De Jonge +100 (W); Karlsson tb Snedeker +100 (W)] Round 2 play (4pts): Camilo Villegas to beat Brendan Steele -145 @ 5Dimes WON by 5
Rookie Steele shot to prominence when winning the Texas Open in April, but his only other top-20 finish on the PGA Tour was in January and he has failed to finish in the top-50 in any of his last four events. He really shouldn't be a match for Villegas who was within a shot of the lead until he found water at the par-3 15th and looks set to continue his impressive form at Southwind: in the last five years he has finished 16th, 46th, 18th, 29th and 8th. Despite that double-bogey, he lies in 20th place after the 1st round. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Villegas tb Slocum -138 (W); Walker tb Price -135 (W)] Round 3 play (2pts): Greg Chalmers to beat Chris Couch -105 @ 5Dimes WON by 2
Opposing Couch for the second time this week. Both players made the cut with two shots to spare and lie ten shots off the lead, but whereas this will be Chalmers' fifth consecutive cut made at Southwind, this is the first time for Couch. However, even though he made the cut this time, he has still never broken par on this course. Chalmers did so yesterday, has made seven of his last cuts, including two top-10 finishes, and so looks far more likely to move up the leaderboard on Moving Day. Round 4 play (2pts): Chris Couch to beat Jhonattan Vegas +100 @ Expekt [available generally] LOST by 4
Have profitably opposed Couch twice this week, but backing him today since he finally broke par around Southwind yesterday. He has been playing well - he hasn't missed a single cut all year and ranks inside the top-10 in the Tour's All-Around Ranking category - and each round has been lower than the previous one this week, so his problems with this course appear to be diminishing. Vegas remains one to oppose though. He shot 65 yesterday to jump from 70th to 22nd, but having missed six of his last seven cuts (and having never previously played on this course), it seems unlikely that he will be able to replicate yesterday's form on the greens. [unofficial rd4 system plays: Goosen tb Merrick -143 (W); Adams tb Tringale -120 (L); Westwood tb Byrd -140 (W); Kelly tb Vegas -111 (W); Trahan tb McNeill -155 (W); Kelly tb Walker -109 (L)] |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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