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0-3; -12.80pts (system plays: 4-4-2) Round 1 play (2pts): Geoff Ogilvy to beat Brandt Snedeker +110 @ 5Dimes LOST by 1
Snedeker has had the much better year and dominates the h2h record in 2011, but a large part of that is due to Ogilvy shoulder problems. He is now fully fit and with his finished of 4th in the Canadian Open and 3rd last week, he could be a contender this week. He certainly was last year when he led after the opening round. Snedeker's sole previous appearance at the Tour Championship was in 2007 - he finished last. [unofficial rd1 system play: Choi tb Mickelson +110 (T)] Round 2 play (4pts): Steve Stricker to beat K.J. Choi -109 @ Pinnacle [available generally] LOST by 5
It was supposed to be 3-5 days before Stricker felt the benefits of his Monday cortisone shot and, according to his interview, he noticed a significant difference in the strength in his left arm yesterday. It augurs well for today as the issue is one of stength rather than any pain in his left arm so I don't see why he can't play as well as yesterday. The last time that he was paired with Choi in the 2nd round (the Deutsche Bank Championship three weeks ago), he was a best-price -175, so this shows how much the books continue to factor in his 'injury' news into their odds. The value should be with Stricker in this situation. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Dufner tb Bradley +107 (W); Senden tb Singh -135 (L); Ogilvy tb Choi +100 (L)] No round 3 plays. Round 4 play (4pts): Luke Donald to beat Bill Haas -161 @ Pinnacle [available generally] LOST by 1
By his own admission, Donald hasn't been on top of his game this week, but he is the World #1 because he can still grind out good scores with his short game even if he isn't playing well enough to win. That said, he is still only three shots off the lead and if he does play any better from tee-to-green today, he will have a very chance of winning. Haas is also in 5th place after 54 holes, but given that he ranks 117th in Final Round Scoring Average - Donald is 2nd and averages more than three shots lower in the final round - he looks far less likely to challenge the lead today. [unofficial rd4 system plays: Kuchar tb Bradley -138 (L); Dufner tb Bradley +125 (W); Watney tb Singh -137 (L); Scott tb Howell -123 (T); Howell tb Bradley -111 (W); Mickelson tb Jacobson -135 (W)] |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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