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3-1; +0.20pts (system plays: 7-1-0) Round 1 play (2pts): Nick Watney to beat Martin Kaymer +100 @ Bet365 [available generally] WON by 2
The marquee matchup and the marquee grouping (with Bubba Watson) in the first round, but even though Kaymer is #1 in the World Rankings, Watney is by far the hotter player. Whereas Kaymer's five starts this year have yielded finishes of 1st, 28th, 31st, 2nd and 4th, Watney's have yielded finishes of 6th, 5th, 6th, 9th and 1st. And whereas Kaymer is making his debut at the Innisbrook resort, Watney has played in each of the last five years here, making the cut every time and finishing further up the leaderboard every time, culminating in a 4th place finish last year. He doesn't appear in his interviews to be a likely candidate for a post-win letdown, so I'll back Watney at plus odds to beat Kaymer whose play was particularly poor at the weekend. [unofficial rd1 system plays: Furyk tb Singh +105 (W); Laird tb Haas B +110 (W)] Round 2 play (4pts): Jim Furyk to beat Matteo Manassero -150 @ Paddy Power LOST by 2
Backing the defending champion to continue his fine form on this course. He shot 67 yesterday with just one bogey and shouldn't be far away from a sub-70 score again in the second round. Manassero struggled off the tee yesterday, but recovered well thereafter to finish the day in 16th place and a shot behind Furyk. However, the young Italian has tended to start events well this year, only to fade the following day. His three 2nd round scores this year read: 71, 70, 78. In his first regular PGA Tour event, this could easily be another occasion on which he fails to carry over his first day promise. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Laird tb Appleby -138 (L); Leonard tb Perry -150 (W)] Round 3 play (2pts): Brandt Snedeker to beat Matteo Manassero +110 @ Bet365 [available generally] WON by 5 [unofficial rd3 system play: Snedeker tb Appleby -105 (W)]
Round 4 play (2pts):
Nick Watney to beat Justin Rose -136 @ Pinnacle [available generally] WON by 1
Much as I would like to see Rose win this event, I can't see anything other than Watney closing the gap on the current leader. Watney is the best American on Tour at the moment and Rose's record when holding the lead will not give him much confidence of holding onto his one-shot lead. He has held the lead heading in the final round on six occasions on the PGA Tour. In the first five occasions, he finished 3rd, 14th, 3rd, 4th and 9th. He did finally hold on to win last year's AT&T National, but he won by a single shot when he started the day with a four-shot lead. Little wonder that Watney has a 13-3-0 h2h lead against Rose over the last 12 months and a 7-1-1 h2h lead in the final round alone. [unofficial rd4 system plays: Simpson tb Stallings -165 (W); Laird tb Byrd +103 (W); Snedeker tb De Jonge -115 (W)] |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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