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1-3; -2.40pts (system plays: 8-18-2) Round 1 play (2pts): Russell Henley to beat Heath Slocum +100 @ Unibet LOST by 2
Backing the amateur in this matchup. Not only did the University of Georgia senior finish 16th in last year's U.S. Open, but he played in two other Nationwide Tour events last year and made the cut, while he has played in just one Nationwide Tour event this year and won it. He was awarded the Haskins Award last year (for the most outstanding collegiate player) and the list of previous winners reads as roll call of leading players on the PGA Tour, as well as Major champions. He is set to follow in such lofty footsteps and will be more than a match for s struggling Slocum who has missed the cut in four of his last five starts, hasn't recorded a top-50 finish since March (and just one in total since the season-opening, limited-field Tournament of Champions) and has missed the cut in three of four previous attempts at the U.S. Open. [unofficial rd1 system plays: Henley tb Colsaerts +100 (W); Moore tb Baddeley -111 (L); Westwood tb Donald -105 (L); Dufner tb Wilson M -111 (W); Villegas tb Baddeley +110 (L); Johnson D tb McIlroy +100 (L); Johnson D tb Watney +100 (T); Moore tb Snedeker +120 (L); Villegas tb Snedeker +100 (L)] Round 2 play (4pts): Rober Garrigus to beat Scott Hend +115 @ Unibet WON by 8
First of all, Hend is a player who struggles on the European Tour - he has missed five of eleven cuts this year and has yet to record a top-25 finish. To say that he would finish day one of the U.S. Open in 4th place is a surprise would be an understatement, including to the player himself. Here are some of his post-round quotes: "Shot 69, got lucky on a couple of shots. Fortunate enough to get the lies in the rough where I could dig it out and get to the green and get it up and down." In response to 'Did you find something today' - "I've been searching for months. I'm still looking. That's just golf. I'm still looking for it. Hopefully I'll find it sometime." "Hopefully I can produce a few better more quality shots tomorrow and I won't have as much pressure trying to get it up and down." He only hit four fairways yesterday so he clearly had to be very lucky with the lies. Surely, he cannot continue like this for a second day and will revert to type - he averages 73.5 in the 2nd round this year. Garrigus has been playing well recently and has finished in the top-30 in the last three years at Congressional in the AT&T National. He currently lies 10th and while I don't expect him to stay in the top-10 this week, he should fair much better than Hend. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Cink tb Oosthuizen -139 (L); Cink tb Yang +100 (L); Cink tb Cabrera +110 (W); Johnson Z tb Schwartzel +115 (W); Oosthuizen tb Uihlein -189 (W); McDowell tb Oosthuizen -140 (L); McDowell tb Yang -138 (L)] Round 3 play (2pts): Steve Stricker to beat Lee Westwood +120 @ Boyle Sports LOST by 4
Two players who opened with poor rounds of 75, but bounced back well yesterday with 68 for Westwood and 69 for Stricker. With Stricker only seven shots behind 2nd place Yang, neither is out of this tournament, though they will need McIlroy to come back to the field. However, I'm backing the World #4 over the #2 in today's matchup. They have comparable U.S. Open histories - three top-10 finishes each - but Stricker has the advantage of having played at Congressional three times in recent years when it has been used on the PGA Tour - he was 2nd in 2007 and 2nd after 54 holes in 2008. This is a course that does suit him and while he has struggled on the greens so far this week, this is an area in which he will surely improve. Given that has already hit more fairways and more greens in regulation than Westwood so far this week, if he can improve on the greens, he may well be in one of the late pairings on Sunda afternoon. [unofficial rd3 system plays: Kuchar tb McIlroy +100 (L); Stenson tb Oosthuizen +117 (W)] Round 4 play (2pts): Steve Stricker to beat Louis Oosthuizen -150 @ Centrebet and Sportingbet [available generally] LOST by 3
Backing Stricker again. He was well ahead of Westwood and 3-under-par for his round until he three-putted the 10th. Thereafter nothing much happened for him on the back nine and he was overtaken by a resurgent Westwood. Ironically, he is closer to 2nd place now than he was yesterday so I can't see him simply cruising today and he does have a good record in this event and particularly on this course. For Oosthuizen, it was a surprise that he made the cut - he missed the cut on his debut last year, has missed the cut in three of his previous four starts and the only success led to a 73rd place finish in the Malaysian Open. He opened with a 69 to lie 4th after the opening round, but has slipped down the leaderboard each day to 15th and now 21st. He is simply not playing well enough to bounce back today. [unofficial rd4 system plays: Stricker tb McDowell -130 (L); Simpson tb Chappell -139 (L); Quiros tb Oosthuizen -120 (L); Stricker tb Kuchar +105 (W); Westwood tb McIlroy -110 (L); Henley tb Quiros +177 (W); Senden tb Oosthuizen -111 (L); Haas tb Schwartzel +100 (L); Garcia tb Garrigus -115 (T); Jacobson tb Garrigus -125 (L)] |
