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R1 18H MB's @ Sporting Index

Sell David Howell over Kenichi Kuboya at 3 for 0.5 Pts M/U -25, Profit 14 Pts
Howell shot 83 in R2 in the Wales Open two weeks ago and has missed 10 cuts in 27 events played in the last 12 months. He is certainly not the player he was a few years ago and his average score for the year sits at 71.6. It is difficult to compare players who play on different tours but his opponent has 11 top 20s in 34 starts in the same time in Japan and Asia. My own feeling is that in an American major it would be difficult to split them so getting a 3 pt start is a bet worth taking.

Sell Robert Rock over Kevin Chappell at 3 for 0.25 Pts M/U 28, Loss 6.25 Pts
Chappell has played 13 times this season since graduating to the main tour and has achieved very little bar a 2nd in Texas, which was a bright spot amongst 8 missed cuts. Allowing for all of this i still feel he shouldn't be a 3pt underdog to Rock who won for the first time on the European Tour on Sunday, had to fly to London to get an American Visa on Monday and will see Congressional for the first time probably today. It is Rock's first event on the PGA tour and it may pass him by.

Sell Alexander Noren over Sung-Moon Bae at 6 for 0.5 Pts M/U 0, Profit 3 Pts
Noren was the winner in Europe the week before Rock and, like Rock, comes to this tour for the first time. Sung-Moon Bae has played in a couple of events here without ever contending but hasn't shot above 74 in the four rounds played. In a match up between two players likely to both exit by Friday, 6 is far too high.

+10.75 2-1-0

R2

Sell Jason Dufner over Stephen Gallacher at 4 with Spreadex for 0.5 Pts M/U 0, Profit 2 Pts
Gallacher won this match up yesterday by 2 and 4 seems a little high given that.

Sell Alexander Noren over Sung-Moon Bae for 0.5 Pts at 5 with Sporting Index M/U 22, Loss 8.5 Pts
Same reasoning as yesterday for a match where Noren was well ahead but finished level after 18.


-6.5 Pts 1-1-0

Total +4.25 Pts 3-2-0