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2-0; +6.00pts (system plays: 7-5-1) Round 1 play (2pts): Jim Furyk to beat Bubba Watson +100 @ 5Dimes TIED
Backing a course specialist against a player who could suffer a let-down from winning last week's event. In the last six years here, Furyk has finished 2nd, 1st, mc, 7th, 11th and 7th, whereas Watson has missed the cut in three of five visits. Even if Watson does not start slowly after his win, he should still struggle to beat Furyk, who has finished ahead of him in each of their last seven strokeplay events. The last time that Watson finished ahead of Furyk in a strokeplay event was in the PGA Championship last August. [unofficial rd1 system plays: Van Pelt tb Holmes -101 (L); Johnson D tb Casey -104 (W); Chalmers tb Gainey +100 (T)] Round 2 play (4pts): Phil Mickelson to beat Nick Watney -120 @ The Greek [available generally] WON by 9
Mickelson hadn't played for a few weeks and it showed at times during his first round - he was wayward off the tee and had two penalty shots - but his short game was as sharp as ever and lifted him to 11th place on day one. But that shouldn't be a surprise - this is a course in which the rough is generally little more than first cut, so he can be wayward off the tee and not be penalised. In this sense it is similar to Augusta National and so it is no surprise that he has such a great record on this course. With Watney four shots off the cut line and with the Players Championship only a week away, it is more surprising to see The Greek price Mickelson at -120 than to see Stan James price him at -163 or Skybet at -150 (with ties losing). [unofficial rd2 system plays: Simpson tb Kirk -138 (W); Mickelson tb Johnson D -150 (W); Toms tb Byrd -138 (L); Simpson tb Woodland -110 (W)] No round 3 plays. Round 4 play (2pts): Hunter Mahan to beat Rickie Fowler -120 @ The Greek [available generally] WON by 1
Ranked 16th in driving distance, 4th in driving accuracy and 6th in greens in regulation so far this week, Mahan should be higher up the leaderboard than his current 16th place. However, every round so far this week has been lower than the previous one so it certainly looks as though another good round will follow today. But that shouldn't too great a surprise - he has played in ten events so far this year and finished in the top-10 five times, plus he has finished in the top-25 on this course in each of the last three years. [unofficial rd4 system plays: Davis tb Love -110 (L); Davis tb Romero +110 (W); Cink tb Glover -109 (L); Holmes tb Marino +100 (W); Na tb Romero -116 (W); Cejka tb Garrigus +100 (L)] |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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