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18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

 

Odds: 3-Balls

Wyndham Championship
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2-1; +2.86pts  (system plays: 7-4-1) 

No round 1 plays.

 

Round 2 play (2pts):

Anthony Kim to beat Johnson Wagner -120 @ Stan James  LOST by 4
Wagner has been playing the better golf of this pairing over the whole of 2011, but Kim has certainly shown a marked improvement in his form recently: in his last four starts, he has finished 5th in the British Open, opened with a 69 in the Canadian Open before being disqualified on day 2, led the Greenbrier Classic after 54 holes, and missed the cut by one at the PGA Championship. He lies 26th after the 1st round here, but take away his double-bogey at the 14th and he would have been in the top-5. There's been enough incidications recently that he can shoot another low score today and beat playing parter Wagner for the second day in a row.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Furyk tb Els -130 (L); McNeill bt Bohn -120 (L)]

 

Round 3 play (2pts):

Daniel Summerhays to beat Stuart Appleby +163 @ Bet365  WON by 2
Opposing Appleby who has been playing very poorly  for a long time. He has made the cut just once in his last 14 starts and last time out finished last in the Bridgestone Invitational. Currently ranked outside the top-100 in greens in regulation this week, the cause of his current 2nd place position is clear: he is having a career week on the greens. Surely his putter can't save him for another day and he will drop down the leaderboard given the overall state of his tee-to-green game. Summerhays may have struggled in his rookie season, but he does have a good pedigree on the Nationwide Tour and, being four shots off the lead, he should not feel as much pressure being alongside Appleby in 2nd place at the start of the day.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Summerhays tb Rocha +125 (W); Summerhays tb Quinney +105 (W)]

 

Round 4 play (2pts):

Charles Howell tb Jason Bohn -138 @ Stan James and Sportingbet [available generally]  WON by 2
With such a good event history, there is little surprise in seeing Bohn in 6th place after 54 holes - in his last starts in this event, he has finished 3rd in 2005, 2nd in 2006 and 2nd in 2009. Only the 2009 runners-up finish was on this course, though, and Howell wasn't too far behind in 13th place in his only previous start on this course. So again, Howell's 6th place position can be expected, but it is in terms of current form that Howell should the more likely to close the five-shot gap to Webb Simpson. Whereas Bohn has missed the cut in four of his last five starts and hasn't had a top-10 finish since April 2010, Howell has finishing no worse than 32nd in any of his last eight cuts and that includes three top-5 finishes in his last six starts.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Simpson tb Pettersson -125 (W); Howell tb Kim K -125 (L); Pettersson tb Mallinger -154 (W); Howell tb De Jonge -110 (W); Gainey tb Bohn -110 (T); McNeill tb Taylor -120 (W); Els tb Pettersson -120 (L); Gainey tb Mallinger -125 (W)]

NOTES

There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball' matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.

Note that '2pts' represents 'to win 2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents '2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).