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1-3; -2.60pts (system plays: 13-10-5) Round 1 play (2pts): David Toms to beat Rickie Fowler +110 @ Boyle Sports TIED (loss)
Will gladly take the home-State favourite at these odds. He has been in much the better form recently with finishes of 5th, 37th, 3rd and 24th since the World Matchplay, whereas Fowler has finished mc, 8th, 30th, 38th and mc over the same period, and he does have a very good history in this event whereas Fowler is making his debut here. Toms is a former winner on the previous course in 2001, but in his last four visits since the event moved to TPC Louisiana, he has been 10th, 20th, 4th and 9th after the opening two rounds. Age and the pressure of playing in front of his home crowd may have caught up with him at the end of the week, but this is always an event that he prepares very hard for and he always sees the rewards in good opening rounds. [unofficial rd1 system plays: Toms tb Snedeker -105 (W); Toms tb McDowell -110 (W); Davis tb Jobe -110 (T); Couch tb Fowler +100 (L); Toms tb Watney +163 (W); Perez tb McDowell +130 (W); Hoffman tb Allenby -102 (W)] Round 2 play (4pts): John Senden to beat Tommy Gainey -125 @ Stan James [also available @ Extrabet] WON by 4
Gainey has certainly surprised this year. He may be playing virtually every week that he can on Tour - he's only skipped one event the entire year that he has been eligible for - but three top-10 finishes is not what I expected of him. He now starts the 2nd round in 3rd place, but I don't think that he will stay there, just as happened earlier this month when in a similar position in the Houston Open. Instead, I'd rather back the ever-consistent Senden. He has made his last six cuts, of which five have been top-25 finishes, and he has also made his last six cuts in this event, including being 2nd at the start of the weekend last year. He looks likely to improve on his current 21st position until, at least, the final round. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Stricker tb Watson -120 (T); Crane tb Watson +100 (L); Choi tb Watson -111 (L); Pettersson tb Bohn -116 (L); Simpson tb Bettencourt -163 (W); Donald tb Watson -120 (L); Simpson tb Mayfair -143 (W); Senden tb Dufner +110 (W); Pettersson tb Rollins -111 (L)] Round 3 play (2pts): Nick O'Hern to beat Tommy Gainey +106 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek, Carib and WSEX] LOST by 2 [unofficial rd3 system plays: Smith tb Bramlett -105 (W); Bettencourt tb Mathis -110 (L); De Jonge tb Couch +100 (W); Jones tb Teater -105 (W)] Round 4 play (2pts): Steve Stricker to beat Bubba Watson -130 @ WSEX [also available @ 5Dimes, Pinnacle, The Greek and Carib] LOST by 4
Easy to oppose Watson in this situation. On two previous occasions, he has held the lead after 54 holes and on both occasions he failed to win. In the 2007 Houston Open, he held a 3-shot lead after 54 holes, but shot 72 to finish 2nd; in the 2008 Arnold Palmer Invitational he shot 72 when starting the final round in joint-lead to finish 8th. Stricker has finished ahead of him in every strokeplay event this year and even though he starts the final round two shots back, he has a good chance of continuing that run. [unofficial rd4 system plays: Choi tb Watson -120 (T); Gainey tb Rollins -125 (W); Chalmers tb Jones -119 (T); Toms tb Watson -110 (L); Stricker tb Toms -150 (T); O'Hern tb Chalmers -125 (L); Stricker tb Choi -110 (L); Gainey tb McNeill -130 (W)] |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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