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2-1; +2.00pts (system plays: 9-4-0) Round 1 play (2pts): Hunter Mahan to beat Webb Simpson +100 @ Paddy Power WON by 1
A good price to back Mahan who has a good record at Bay Hill: from 2008-10, he finished 6th, 22nd and 25th and then last year, he was 2nd and 4th after the first and second rounds; Simpson has missed the cut by some distance in each of the last two years with an average score in excess of 75 per round. Mahan has played in five events in the U.S. so far this year, winning once and finishing in the top-25 every time and other than the 2009 Players Championship, it has been five years since he missed a cut in Florida. He certainly has the form to perform well on this course again this week. [unofficial rd1 system play: Mickelson tb Rose +110 (L)] Round 2 play (2pts): Bubba Watson to beat Sang-Moon Bae -167 @ Unibet WON by 5
Opposing Bae once again. Yes, he did finish 2nd last week, but so did Watson in his last event and whereas Bae has two top-20 finishes in seven strokeplay events this year, Watson has finished in the top-20 in every start in 2012 (six events). Plus, he has been leader (2008) and 3rd (last year) on this course after 54 holes, so his does have form at Bay Hill which also explains his current 4th place finish. Bae has never played Bay Hill previously which should explain why he languishes in 57th place. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Woods tb Watney +120 (W); Woods tb Els -189 (W); Woods tb Mahan -145 (W); Woods tb Mickelson -125 (W); Woods tb Rose -120 (W); Cauley tb Rollins -110 (L); McDowell tb Bae -120 (W); Love tb Vegas -145 (L); Rose tb Simpson +100 (L); Stroud tb Walker -102 (W)] Round 3 play (2pts): Davis Love to beat Ryan Moore +100 @ VCbet [available generally] LOST by 3 [unofficial rd3 system plays: Johnson tb Simpson +123 (W); O'Hair tb Moore -104 (W)] |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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