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2-2; +1.90pts (system plays: 7-9-0) Round 1 play (2pts): Lee Westwood to beat Phil Mickelson -105 @ Bet365 [also available @ 5Dimes] LOST by 1
Mickelson has finsihed 2nd twice in the U.S. Open at Bethpage State Park, but the most recent was three years ago. In terms of this year, his only top-25 finish in the last three months came in the Scottish Open; I can't see either the form in him to at least match his previous success here. Westwood, similarly, has had a rough time of late, but that has been just no top-25 finishes in his last four events, not three months. He has been decisive, though, following his missed cut in the PGA Championship - he has replaced his caddy and his coach and I am expecting a much better week from him. [unofficial rd1 system plays: McDowell tb Oosthuizen +100 (L); Harrington tb Oosthuizen +135 (W); Choi tb Baddeley -105 (W)] Round 2 play (4pts): Steve Stricker to beat Keegan Bradley +100 @ Stan James [available generally] WON by 2
Making his debut on this course, Bradley struggled yesterday and finished the day in 52nd place. With the course becoming firmer during the week, that should tilt this matchup even more in favour of Stricker who has finished in the top-25 in both previous U.S. Open appearances here. With also a great record in this event - 1st, 2nd and 3rd plus two other top-25 finishes in its five-year history - Stricker should be the favourite in this matchup as he continues his 11-5-1 2nd round h2h dominance over Bradley over the past twelve months. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Garcia tb Harrington -110 (W); Watson tb Pettersson -125 (L); Senden tb Cauley -116 (W); Clark tb Fowler +120 (L); Scott tb Garcia +100 (L); Van Pelt tb Senden -110 (L)] Round 3 play (4pts): J.B. Holmes to beat Harris English +105 @ WSEX [available generally] LOST by 2
This is the ninth time that English has started the weekend in the top-20, but he has struggled to convert these chances into winning positions: in those previous eight situations, he has averaged 73.13 in the 3rd round this season when in the top-20. So, with Holmes also having finished ahead of him in eight of their last twelve common events this season, I'll gladly take plus-odds in this matchup. [unofficial rd3 system play: Harrington tb Pettersson +113 (L)] Round 4 play (4pts): Sergio Garcia to beat Phil Mickelson -120 @ Stan James WON by 1
Will oppose Mickelson once again this week - he was rather fortunate to have an early tee-time yesterday as only just made the cut and so his 67 saw him jump 42 places up the leaderboard as the course become much harder later in the day. Garcia does have the pressure of leading the event, but he was in a similar position last week and went away from the field in the final round. As a measure of his ability to hold a lead, he has previously started the 3rd round in the lead and finished the round also in the lead on 11 previous occasions - he has gone on to win in 10 of those 11 occasions. [unofficial rd4 system plays: Gillis tb Estes -125 (W); Garcia tb Watney -115 (L); Woods tb Watson -128 (L); Stadler tb Estes -115 (L); Johnson D tb Palmer -145 (W); Snedeker tb Stadler -138 (W)] |
